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Justin Lawrence

2026
Nationals· RHP · throws R· 34.1 IP· 7.34 ERA· 1.95 WHIP· 177 batters faced
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Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Fbetter than 1% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
RelieverStill Searching

Below league average across the board.

Lawrence allows more bases than most pitchers

The simulator expects him to allow 0.506 bases per batter faced, better than 1% of qualified pitchers. His weakest skill is limiting walks (3rd percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.

His grade rests on 177 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Justin Lawrence.

Tony SantillanRedsConnor PhillipsRedsLuis GilYankeesSimeon Woods RichardsonBlue Jays

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Pitcher type

He lands in the “Hit hard, few strikeouts” corner of the map.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: strikeout rate minus walk rate, where higher is better, and hard-hit rate allowed, where lower is better. The hard-hit axis is flipped, so the best corner is the top right. Each dot is a pitcher with 80+ batters faced this season, sized by batters faced. The dashed lines are the league median on each skill, and the league best on each is named above the chart. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Justin LawrenceLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).731.527—
Walk rate(lower = better)14%9%3rd
Strikeout rate(higher = better)23%22%56th

A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Justin Lawrence mixes his sweeper (44%) and sinker (42%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet, and the sweeper has come closest, with a 46% whiff rate against a league median of 31%.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

−5 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 97 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 92 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He cost 26.3 bases against league average across 684 pitches, or 3.8 per 100 pitches.

Sweeper
44%
82.1 mph · RHP median 83.5
46% whiffs · Lg median 31%
cost 2.6 per 1007.9 total
Sinker
42%
95.5 mph · RHP median 94.7
12% whiffs · Lg median 13%
cost 3.8 per 10011.0 total
Four-Seam Fastball
14%
95.6 mph · RHP median 95.1
23% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 7.5 per 1007.4 total
How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Compared with the league, his sinker tilts 20 points more toward lefties.

Sweeper
38% vs LHH · RHP median 17%
48% vs RHH · RHP median 29%
Sinker
43% vs LHH · RHP median 16%
41% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
Four-Seam Fastball
19% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
11% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (RHP median). Medians come from right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. Between 131 and 384 of them qualify, depending on the pitch. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Justin Lawrence's pitch movement, 2026

His Four-Seam Fastball has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.

The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.

Justin Lawrence's pitch movement, 2026-1201201224in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
SweeperST
Rise 1.7 in
+0.6 vs Lg median
Break −17.1 in
−3.3 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
SinkerSI
Rise 0.2 in
−8.1 vs Lg median
Break 15.0 in
−0.2 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 8.4 in
−7.3 vs Lg median
Break 11.0 in
+3.2 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The “changed” verdict removes a league-wide drift that the trail still shows, so a long trail can read as steady. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.041 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049

vs LHB77 PA0.535

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.535 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.515 to 0.555, based on 77 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.623 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs LHB (0.623) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

vs RHB100 PA0.494

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.494 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.474 to 0.515, based on 100 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.591 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs RHB (0.591) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

0.4210.4580.4950.5330.570
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Justin Lawrence this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Francisco AlvarezHome run
109 mph · 27° · worth 3.9 bases
03/26 vs Mets
vs Jordan WalkerHome run
117 mph · 24° · worth 3.8 bases
06/13 vs Cardinals
vs Iván HerreraHome run
104 mph · 34° · worth 3.7 bases
06/13 vs Cardinals
vs Ezequiel DuranHome run
96 mph · 32° · worth 3.6 bases
06/18 vs Rangers
vs Austin WellsHome run
109 mph · 23° · worth 3.6 bases
07/10 vs Yankees

Luck check

How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Deserved vs. actual

Batters have been credited with about 5 more bases than their contact off Justin Lawrence deserved, so his results have been unlucky so far.

Deserved by the contact he allowed73
Actually credited to batters78

Both bars count 100 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.

ERA 7.34 · WHIP 1.95 · BABIP against 0.330 (Lg median 0.286)

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Justin Lawrence

Compared with last season, his xEB/PA is up, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is up and his K% is down.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.