Bubba Chandler
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Chandler sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.441 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 67th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (81st percentile). The soft spot is Command (17th percentile).
547 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Bubba Chandler.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Bubba Chandler | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .434 | .528 | 67th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 12% | 9% | 17th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 21% | 22% | 34th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Bubba Chandler leans on his four-seam fastball (49% of pitches). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 2.5 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his four-seam fastball runs 3.4 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 221 bases vs a replacement arm's 304 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
19.1 bases saved vs league average, across 2,163 pitches — 0.9 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Bubba Chandler's pitch movement, 2026
4 of his 6 pitches have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.463 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.447 to 0.480, based on 297 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.468 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.421 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.405 to 0.438, based on 250 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.357 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.357) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 11 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 11 more bases than their contact off Bubba Chandler earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 360 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.38 · WHIP 1.37 · BABIP against 0.272 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs YankeesJul 22, 2026
21 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.7
- Above replacement
- +7.0
- vs RaysApr 17, 2026
22 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 5.2
- Above replacement
- +7.0
- vs BravesJun 7, 2026
20 BF · 7 K, 2 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 5.0
- Above replacement
- +6.2
- vs Blue JaysMay 22, 2026
23 BF · 11 K, 3 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.9
- Above replacement
- +5.9
- vs PhilliesJun 30, 2026
29 BF · 6 K, 2 BB, 7 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 10.3
- Above replacement
- +5.9
Trends
Multi-season trends · Bubba Chandler
HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against down, GB% against down, FB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.