Bubba Chandler
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Chandler sits right around league average
The simulator expects him to allow 0.447 bases per batter faced, better than 62% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting home runs (74th percentile). His weakest skill is limiting walks (18th percentile).
His grade rests on 674 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.
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Plays like…
Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Bubba Chandler.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
He lands in the “Hit hard, few strikeouts” corner of the map.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)
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| Bubba Chandler | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .453 | .527 | — |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 12% | 9% | 18th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 21% | 22% | 37th |
A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.
Arsenal
Bubba Chandler leans on his four-seam fastball (48% of pitches). His best pitch has been the sweeper, saving 1.4 bases per 100 thrown against league average, and his four-seam fastball runs 3.2 mph faster than the median right-handed pitcher's.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
He allowed about 281 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 395 over the same batters faced.
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
He saved 16.0 bases against league average across 2,686 pitches, or 0.6 per 100 pitches.
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Mix by batter side
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Bubba Chandler's pitch movement, 2026
All 6 of his pitches have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.
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By appearance
These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.044 EB/PA allowed.
50% probable range: +0.036 to +0.052
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.474 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.458 to 0.490, based on 378 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.470 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.431 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.415 to 0.447, based on 296 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.375 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
His raw rate vs RHB (0.375) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.
His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median, which is a real platoon weakness.
How to read this chart
- Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
- The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
- The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
- The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
- Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.
Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
4 outs behind him came on balls the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.
15 hits off him had less than a 20% chance of being hits.
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Deserved vs. actual
Batters have been credited with about 15 more bases than their contact off Bubba Chandler deserved, so his results have been unlucky so far.
Both bars count 446 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.
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ERA 4.62 · WHIP 1.40 · BABIP against 0.281 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through the order
Best games
Best games
These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.
- vs RaysApr 17, 2026score only
22 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 5.2
- Above replacement
- +7.7
- vs YankeesJul 22, 2026
21 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.7
- Above replacement
- +7.7
- vs BravesJun 7, 2026score only
20 BF · 7 K, 2 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 5.0
- Above replacement
- +6.8
- vs PhilliesJun 30, 2026
29 BF · 6 K, 2 BB, 7 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 10.3
- Above replacement
- +6.7
- vs Blue JaysMay 22, 2026score only
23 BF · 11 K, 3 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.9
- Above replacement
- +6.6
Trends
Multi-season trends · Bubba Chandler
Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is up, his K% is down, his Barrel% against is down, his GB% against is down and his FB% against is up.
Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.