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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Braves at Nationals · Sep 2, 2026

Braves
9
Final
Nationals
0
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Braves 58% · tied 13% · Nationals 28%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
9
0
Est. bases
15.1
13.8
Total bases
19
2
Home runs
2
0
Barrels
1
1
Walks/HBP
6
2
Strikeouts
11
6
GIDP
1
0
Stolen bases
1
0
Left on base
7
4
Errors
0
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Braves lead on deserved runs by 1.3.

Nationals deserved lead ↑
-8-6-4-20+2-1.3-9
Braves deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Nationals +0.0 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning +0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Nationals +0.0 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning +0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Nationals +2.0 (80% band +1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +1.9 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 4: deserved Nationals +1.2 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.8 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 5: deserved Nationals +1.2 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 6: deserved Nationals +0.7 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Braves +3Through inning 7: deserved Nationals +0.6 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Braves +6Through inning 8: deserved Braves +0.7 (80% band -4.0 to +3.0) · this inning -1.3 deserved runs · actual Braves +8Through inning 9: deserved Braves +1.3 (80% band -5.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.6 deserved runs · actual Braves +9123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualNationals sideBraves side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Braves
Nationals
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Braves
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Nationals
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Braves
Nationals
José Tena 5 BF
2.4
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Bravespitching
Grant Holmes3.0 IP · 9 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
3.9 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 3 balls in play worth 3.7 expected bases. 3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Slider.

Changeup2 thrown (8% tonight, season 7%)
+0.1 bases cost
Curveball2 thrown (8% tonight, season 8%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Dylan Dodd1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases saved

3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Cutter.

Elieser Hernández3.0 IP · 11 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.8 bases saved

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Didier Fuentes1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.1 bases saved

About an average night — −0.1 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Curveball1 thrown
−0.1 bases saved
Splitter1 thrown (6% tonight, season 7%)
+0.1 bases cost
Victor Mederos1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Splitter3 thrown · 2 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Sweeper2 thrown (18% tonight, season 4%)
0.0 bases
Cutter1 thrown (9% tonight, season 47%)
+0.1 bases cost
Four-Seamer1 thrown (9% tonight, season 24%)
0.0 bases
Nationalspitching
Brad Lord3.3 IP · 14 BF · 6 K · 1 BB
2.5 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.6 bases better than average on 25 pitches. 7 of his 8 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Changeup2 thrown (4% tonight, season 5%)
0.0 bases
Riley Cornelio2.7 IP · 11 BF · 3 K · 1 BB
0.4 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 3 balls in play worth 3.5 expected bases. His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 8 pitches.

Cutter8 thrown · 1 whiff
−0.6 bases saved
Max Kranick1.3 IP · 11 BF · 1 K · 3 BB
3.9 bases cost

The Sweeper got hit — 2 balls in play worth 1.6 expected bases. Struggled to find the zone (53% strikes).

Four-Seamer15 thrown (31% tonight, season 39%)
+0.4 bases cost
Matt Waldron0.7 IP · 2 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases saved

Faced only 2 batters. His Knuckleball did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

José Tena1.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases cost

About an average night — +0.2 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Braves
Lucky
Dead even
Nationals
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Mike Yastrzemski hit it

Every ball Mike Yastrzemski hit this game, where it landed.

336'406'335'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −1.4 bases behind deserved.

5 PA2 H0 BB0 HBP1 K96.8 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 3Deserved: 4.4
PA 1 vs Brad Lord: single — 0.5 deserved basesPA 2 vs Riley Cornelio: out — 2.0 deserved basesPA 3 vs Riley Cornelio: strikeoutPA 4 vs Max Kranick: double — 1.5 deserved basesPA 5 vs José Tena: out — 0.3 deserved bases
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball61%

0.3 deserved bases on contact

Breaking39%

4.1 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Riley Cornelio
K
Actual
0.0
Deserved
2.0
Max Kranick
Actual
2.0
Deserved
1.5
Brad Lord
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.5
José Tena
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.3
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Nationals Park.

Braves26 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
336'406'335'
Nationals23 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
336'406'335'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Nationals Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information