Riley Cornelio
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Cornelio is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.474 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 19th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Command (1st percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
107 batters faced · data through 2026-09-02.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Riley Cornelio.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.7%)Hard-hit% against Blake Snell (30.8%)
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| Riley Cornelio | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .449 | .527 | 19th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 16% | 9% | 1st |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 22% | 22% | 48th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Riley Cornelio leans on his slider (54% of pitches). His slider has performed closest to league average, with a 50% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 45 bases vs a replacement arm's 55 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
0.4 bases cost vs league average, across 446 pitches — 0.1 per 100.
Rarely used: cutter (2%)
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Mix by batter side
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Riley Cornelio's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.540 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.519 to 0.562, based on 56 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.437 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.499 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.479 to 0.522, based on 52 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.476 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.433 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Riley Cornelio.
over 63 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.96 · WHIP 1.81 · BABIP against 0.295 (Lg median 0.288)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs MarinersJun 12, 2026score only
17 BF · 2 K, 2 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.7
- Above replacement
- +4.5
- vs PiratesJul 4, 2026
11 BF · 3 K, 2 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.3
- Above replacement
- +2.4
- vs BravesJul 30, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs AthleticsJul 17, 2026
9 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.8
- Above replacement
- +0.9
- vs Red SoxJul 1, 2026
7 BF · 2 K, 1 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.9
- Above replacement
- +0.8