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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Luis Morales

2026
Athletics· RHP · throws R· 16.0 IP· 13.50 ERA· 2.56 WHIP· 90 batters faced

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Fbetter than 1% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
StarterStill Searching

Below league average across the board.

Morales allows more bases than most pitchers

The simulator expects him to allow 0.506 bases per batter faced, better than 1% of qualified pitchers. His weakest skill is limiting home runs (1st percentile).

His grade rests on 90 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together. He has not reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA.

Justin LawrenceNationalsTony SantillanRedsConnor PhillipsRedsLuis GilYankees

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Pitcher type

He lands in the “Hit hard, few strikeouts” corner of the map.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: strikeout rate minus walk rate, where higher is better, and hard-hit rate allowed, where lower is better. The hard-hit axis is flipped, so the best corner is the top right. Each dot is a pitcher with 80+ batters faced this season, sized by batters faced. The dashed lines are the league median on each skill, and the league best on each is named above the chart. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Luis MoralesLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).738.527—
Walk rate(lower = better)13%9%10th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)19%22%21st

A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Luis Morales leans on his four-seam fastball (46% of pitches). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet, and the four-seam fastball has come closest, and his four-seam fastball runs 2.1 mph faster than the median right-handed pitcher's.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

−4 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 57 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 53 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He cost 19.2 bases against league average across 251 pitches, or 7.6 per 100 pitches.

Four-Seam Fastball
46%
97.2 mph · RHP median 95.1
10% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 6.1 per 1009.8 total
Slider
26%
85.8 mph · RHP median 86.9
30% whiffs · Lg median 33%
cost 10.2 per 1009.4 total
Sinker
not charted
11%
96.2 mph · RHP median 94.7
—
—
Changeup
not charted
10%
88.7 mph · RHP median 87.1
—
—
Sweeper
not charted
8%
81.6 mph · RHP median 83.5
—
—

Only his four-seam fastball and slider are in the charts below, because the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
47% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
45% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
Slider
21% vs LHH · RHP median 20%
31% vs RHH · RHP median 30%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (RHP median). Medians come from right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. Between 217 and 384 of them qualify, depending on the pitch. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. Only his four-seam fastball and slider are in these charts, because the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.041 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049

vs LHB37 PA0.534

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.534 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.512 to 0.557, based on 37 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.720 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs LHB (0.720) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

vs RHB53 PA0.493

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.493 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.469 to 0.514, based on 53 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.644 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs RHB (0.644) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

0.4200.4580.4960.5340.571
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Luis Morales this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Kazuma OkamotoHome run
110 mph · 25° · worth 3.6 bases
03/29 vs Blue Jays
vs Jesús SánchezHome run
109 mph · 24° · worth 3.5 bases
03/29 vs Blue Jays
vs Kyle ManzardoHome run
99 mph · 30° · worth 3.1 bases
05/02 vs Guardians
vs Ben MalgeriHome run
94 mph · 30° · worth 3.1 bases
07/31 vs Tigers
vs Dillon DinglerHome run
100 mph · 33° · worth 2.6 bases
07/31 vs Tigers

Luck check

One out behind him came on a ball the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.

vs George SpringerOutLucky out
109 mph · 21° · worth 2.1 bases
03/29 vs Blue Jays
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Deserved vs. actual

Batters have been credited with about 8 more bases than their contact off Luis Morales deserved, so his results have been unlucky so far.

Deserved by the contact he allowed46
Actually credited to batters54

Both bars count 62 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.

ERA 13.50 · WHIP 2.56 · BABIP against 0.364 (Lg median 0.286)

Times through the order

These charts show what happens as hitters see him a second and third time.

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Luis Morales

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is up, his K% is down, his Barrel% against is up, his FB% against is down and his Pull% against is up.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.