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Brycen Mautz

2026
Cardinals· LHP · throws L· 9.0 IP· 9.00 ERA· 2.33 WHIP· 48 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Starter

A profile still coming into focus

Not enough modeled data yet to judge his run prevention with confidence.

48 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Brycen Mautz mixes his four-seam fastball (40%) and slider (25%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the four-seam fastball has come closest.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+3 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 22 bases vs a replacement arm's 26 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

2.6 bases cost vs league average, across 77 pitches — 3.4 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
40%
93.4 mph · LHP median 93.6
28% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 3.4 per 1002.6 total
Slider
not charted
25%
83.5 mph · LHP median 85.9
—
—
Curveball
not charted
19%
78.2 mph · LHP median 79.7
—
—
Sinker
not charted
15%
93.2 mph · LHP median 93.0
—
—

Only his four-seam fastball is in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Rarely used: changeup (1%)

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his four-seam fastball is in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.037 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.046

vs LHB21 PA0.459

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.459 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.437 to 0.483, based on 21 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.592 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHB rate (0.592) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB27 PA0.496

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.496 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.473 to 0.518, based on 27 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.487 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

0.4270.4520.4770.5020.528
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go up the middle off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Brycen Mautz landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Rafael Flores Jr.Home run
EV 109 mph · LA 31° · EB 3.8
08/29 vs Pirates
vs Freddie FreemanHome run
EV 105 mph · LA 26° · EB 3.3
09/02 vs Dodgers
vs Teoscar HernándezOut
EV 111 mph · LA 16° · EB 1.2
09/02 vs Dodgers
vs Jake McCarthySingle
EV 104 mph · LA 11° · EB 1.0
09/05 vs Rockies
vs Andrew VaughnSingle
EV 94 mph · LA 13° · EB 1.0
05/25 vs Brewers

Luck check

Burned 4 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Cole CarriggSingleCheap hit
EV 76 mph · LA 45° · EB 0.1 · xBA .091
09/05 vs Rockies
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.