Matt Svanson
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Svanson is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.474 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 21st percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Quiet Contact (20th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
207 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Matt Svanson.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Matt Svanson | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .559 | .528 | 21st |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 34th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 21% | 22% | 39th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Matt Svanson mixes his sinker (45%) and sweeper (32%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the sweeper has come closest.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 101 bases vs a replacement arm's 106 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
8.8 bases cost vs league average, across 781 pitches — 1.1 per 100.
Rarely used: four-seam fastball (1%)
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Mix by batter side
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Matt Svanson's pitch movement, 2026
His Sweeper has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 2 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.498 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.478 to 0.519, based on 102 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.488 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.460 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.438 to 0.479, based on 105 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.507 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 5 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Matt Svanson.
over 143 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 7.27 · WHIP 1.75 · BABIP against 0.362 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs TwinsJun 13, 2026
5 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +2.3
- vs RoyalsJun 19, 2026
7 BF · 1 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.9
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs MetsJun 10, 2026
6 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 1.5
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs BravesJul 2, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs MarlinsApr 22, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Matt Svanson
xEB/PA up, HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against up, Hard-hit% against up, GB% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.