Skip to main content
← All games

Cardinals at Marlins · Apr 22, 2026

Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Cardinals 38% · tied 17% · Marlins 45%

Marlins edged it

The simulator saw a near coin flip, and Marlins came out ahead of Cardinals 4-1.

  • This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
  • The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.