Jayden Murray
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Murray is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.471 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 26th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (24th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
79 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Arsenal
Jayden Murray leans on his four-seam fastball (53% of pitches). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 1.5 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 36% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 43 bases vs a replacement arm's 41 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
3.7 bases cost vs league average, across 237 pitches — 1.6 per 100.
Only his four-seam fastball and sweeper are in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
Rarely used: splitter (0%)
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Mix by batter side
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Jayden Murray's pitch movement, 2026
His Sweeper has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his four-seam fastball and sweeper are in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.502 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.479 to 0.523, based on 53 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.429 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.461 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.440 to 0.484, based on 27 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.752 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.752) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 3 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 7 more bases than their contact off Jayden Murray earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 56 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 9.37 · WHIP 2.08 · BABIP against 0.415 (Lg median 0.287)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs MarinersApr 12, 2026score only
11 BF · 3 K, 3 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.1
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs RedsMay 10, 2026score only
4 BF · 0 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +1.0
- vs GuardiansApr 20, 2026score only
8 BF · 2 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.6
- Above replacement
- +0.6
- vs YankeesApr 25, 2026score only
6 BF · 0 K, 1 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.6
- Above replacement
- +0.5
- vs YankeesApr 24, 2026score only
3 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +0.3
Trends
Multi-season trends · Jayden Murray
HR allowed% up, BB% up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.