Pounds the zone, but too much of it gets hit hard.
Murray is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.510 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 13th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (15th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 424 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
79 batters faced · data through 2026-07-29.
Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Jayden Murray leans on his four-seam fastball (53% of pitches). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 1.5 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 33% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.
▼ −3 bases worse than a replacement arm this season
allowed 43 bases vs a replacement arm's 40 over the same batters faced
Results
All pitches
cost 1.6 per 1003.7 cost across 237
replacement
Four-Seam Fastball
53%↑ +6 pts vs '25
95.3 mph · lg 95.1↓ −0.9 mph vs '25
33% whiffs · lg 18%
saved 1.5 per 1002.4 saved across 162
Sweeper
24%↑ +5 pts vs '25
81.1 mph · lg 83.5↓ −1.0 mph vs '25
19% whiffs · lg 28%
cost 8.2 per 1006.1 cost across 75
Sinker
10%↓ −12 pts vs '25
94.9 mph · lg 94.8↓ −0.6 mph vs '25
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Changeup
8%↑ +4 pts vs '25
89.2 mph · lg 87.2↓ −0.9 mph vs '25
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Cutter
5%↓ −1 pts vs '25
91.1 mph · lg 90.1↓ −1.8 mph vs '25
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Rarely used: splitter (0%)
Mix by batter side
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.
Four-Seam Fastball
55% vs LHH
48% vs RHH
Sweeper
22% vs LHH
31% vs RHH
By appearance
How the stuff has held up outing to outing
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
How he fares against lefties and righties
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 50% probable range. Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Gray tick (marked “lg”) = league median vs that side; the faint gray band behind it spans the middle half of the league (25th–75th percentile).
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
vs LHB53 PA0.552
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.552 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.530 to 0.575, based on 53 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.429 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.422 EB/PA.
lg
vs RHB27 PA0.512
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.512 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.489 to 0.534, based on 27 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.752 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.406 EB/PA.
lg
Raw vs RHB rate (0.752) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
0.3860.4380.4900.5430.595
← better (fewer bases allowed)worse →
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.048
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
Contact allowed
What hitters do when they connect
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Where every ball hit off Jayden Murray landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two; use the ▶ links below to watch on Baseball Savant.
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.
Earned off his contact allowed34
Actually credited to batters41
Batters have been credited about 7 more bases than their contact off Jayden Murray earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 56 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
ERA 9.37 · WHIP 2.08 · BABIP against 0.415 (lg 0.288)
Best games
His biggest outings this year
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
