Jayden Murray
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Murray allows more bases than most pitchers
The simulator expects him to allow 0.471 bases per batter faced, better than 22% of qualified pitchers. His weakest skill is limiting home runs (25th percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.
His grade rests on 79 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.
How to read this chart
Plays like…
Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA.
Pitcher type
Arsenal
Jayden Murray leans on his four-seam fastball (53% of pitches). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 1.5 bases per 100 thrown against league average, with a 36% whiff rate against a league median of 21%.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
He allowed about 43 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 41 over the same batters faced.
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
He cost 3.7 bases against league average across 237 pitches, or 1.6 per 100 pitches.
Only his four-seam fastball and sweeper are in the charts below, because the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
He rarely throws his splitter (0% of his pitches).
How to read this chart
Mix by batter side
How to read this chart
Jayden Murray's pitch movement, 2026
His Sweeper has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.
How to read this chart
By appearance
These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. Only his four-seam fastball and sweeper are in these charts, because the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.041 EB/PA allowed.
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.519 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.498 to 0.542, based on 53 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.429 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.479 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.456 to 0.501, based on 27 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.752 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
His raw rate vs RHB (0.752) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.
His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
How to read this chart
- Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
- The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
- The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
- The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
- Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but they do the most damage to the opposite field.
Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
3 hits off him had less than a 20% chance of being hits.
How to read this chart
Deserved vs. actual
Batters have been credited with about 7 more bases than their contact off Jayden Murray deserved, so his results have been unlucky so far.
Both bars count 56 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.
How to read this chart
ERA 9.37 · WHIP 2.08 · BABIP against 0.415 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.
- vs MarinersApr 12, 2026score only
11 BF · 3 K, 3 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.1
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs RedsMay 10, 2026score only
4 BF · 0 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +1.0
- vs GuardiansApr 20, 2026score only
8 BF · 2 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.6
- Above replacement
- +0.6
- vs YankeesApr 25, 2026score only
6 BF · 0 K, 1 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.6
- Above replacement
- +0.5
- vs YankeesApr 24, 2026score only
3 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +0.3
Trends
Multi-season trends · Jayden Murray
Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up and his BB% is up.
Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.