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Colton Gordon

2026
Astros· LHP · throws L· 9.1 IP· 11.57 ERA· 2.57 WHIP· 50 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Fbetter than 9% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterCommand Artist

Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.

Gordon is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.485 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 9th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (1st percentile).

50 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Grayson RodriguezAngelsKohl DrakeD-backsMike BurrowsAstrosRandy VásquezPadres

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Colton Gordon mixes his four-seam fastball (36%) and sweeper (30%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the sweeper has come closest.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

−11 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

allowed 37 bases vs a replacement arm's 27 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

11.0 bases cost vs league average, across 133 pitches — 8.3 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
36%
91.2 mph · LHP median 93.6
18% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 11.2 per 1008.2 total
Sweeper
30%
81.5 mph · LHP median 81.2
—
cost 4.7 per 1002.8 total
Sinker
not charted
13%
91.1 mph · LHP median 93.0
—
—
Changeup
not charted
12%
83.2 mph · LHP median 85.1
—
—
Slider
not charted
5%
85.5 mph · LHP median 85.9
—
—

Only his four-seam fastball and sweeper are in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Rarely used: curveball (3%)

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his four-seam fastball and sweeper are in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.037 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.047

vs LHB25 PA0.456

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.456 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.433 to 0.479, based on 25 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.658 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHB rate (0.658) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB26 PA0.493

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.493 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.470 to 0.515, based on 26 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.798 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHB rate (0.798) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.4230.4490.4740.4990.525
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Colton Gordon landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Alec BurlesonHome run
EV 107 mph · LA 33° · EB 3.9
04/18 vs Cardinals
vs Ben RiceHome run
EV 106 mph · LA 32° · EB 3.9
04/24 vs Yankees
vs Hunter GoodmanHome run
EV 108 mph · LA 40° · EB 3.8
04/14 vs Rockies
vs José FermínHome run
EV 99 mph · LA 33° · EB 3.7
04/18 vs Cardinals
vs Jordan BeckHome run
EV 98 mph · LA 31° · EB 2.3
04/14 vs Rockies

Luck check

Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Brenton DoyleSingleCheap hit
EV 86 mph · LA -20° · EB 0.1 · xBA .072
04/14 vs Rockies
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Times through order

What happens the third time they see him

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Colton Gordon

HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% up vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.