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Bailey Falter

2026
Braves· LHP · throws L· 11.2 IP· 11.57 ERA· 2.57 WHIP· 63 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Fbetter than 21% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterCommand Artist

Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.

Falter is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.475 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 21st percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (2nd percentile).

63 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Bailey Falter leans on his four-seam fastball (54% of pitches). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the four-seam fastball has come closest.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

−1 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

allowed 35 bases vs a replacement arm's 34 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

3.1 bases cost vs league average, across 107 pitches — 2.9 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
54%
92.3 mph · LHP median 93.6
9% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 2.9 per 1003.1 total
Slider
not charted
25%
83.6 mph · LHP median 85.9
Splitter
not charted
10%
85.5 mph · LHP median 84.1
Curveball
not charted
9%
77.3 mph · LHP median 79.7

Only his four-seam fastball is in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Rarely used: sinker (2%)

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
51% vs LHH · LHP median 34%
57% vs RHH · LHP median 41%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among left-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — 143 of them. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Bailey Falter's pitch movement, 2026

Bailey Falter's pitch movement, 2026618in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 18.4 in
+2.8 vs Lg median
Break 4.5 in
−3.2 vs Lg median
Early season → nowLg medianCurrent-dot uncertainty
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current shape — horizontal break (arm side vs. glove side) by induced vertical break (rise vs. drop). Both axes are in inches of break. The trail runs from this season's earliest tracked outings — the faint, thin end — up to today's solid dot; a trail with only a few segments just means fewer tracked outings. The soft halo around each dot is how far that dot could sit off on its own, just from ordinary outing-to-outing wobble. Don't read a long trail as proof on its own that a pitch changed. Every pitch in baseball loses a little break through midsummer and gets it back by September — the same shift two full seasons back agree on — and the trail shows that league-wide seasonal swing alongside whatever this pitcher did himself. The sentence at the top of this card has the league's share taken out, so it can read “has not moved” above a trail that looks long. That is the two marks measuring different things, not a mistake. A pitch counts as changed only once it sits at least two inches from its own early-season shape — a verdict about this pitcher against himself, never a comparison with anyone else. League median: the small hollow ring marks it, on the same two measurements. Where it sits far from a pitch's dot, a line joins the two — and on a wider screen the ring carries that pitch's code as well — so a distant ring is never orphaned; where it sits close, neither is drawn, because the pairing is already obvious. League median is missing entirely for a pitch marked *: too few pitchers throw it for one to be worth setting, so it is plotted without a reference ring. For the exact dates a pitch changed, see the by-appearance chart below.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his four-seam fastball is in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.028 to +0.046

vs LHB25 PA0.519

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.519 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.496 to 0.540, based on 25 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.534 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

vs RHB38 PA0.556

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.556 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.534 to 0.578, based on 38 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.559 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

0.4210.4640.5080.5520.595
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Bailey Falter landed this season.
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Earned vs. actual

Batters have been credited about 10 more bases than their contact off Bailey Falter earned — his results have run unlucky so far.

Earned off his contact allowed29
Actually credited to batters39

over 50 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

ERA 11.57 · WHIP 2.57 · BABIP against 0.435 (Lg median 0.287)

Times through order

What happens the third time they see him

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Bailey Falter

HR allowed% up, K% down, GB% against down, FB% against down vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.