← All games
Royals at Cardinals · May 16, 2026
Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Royals 96% · tied 3% · Cardinals 2%
Cardinals stole one
Royals did more to deserve the win, but Cardinals took it 4-2.
- This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
- The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.