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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Charlie Barnes

2026
Dodgers· LHP · throws L· 13.0 IP· 6.92 ERA· 1.85 WHIP· 63 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Fbetter than 6% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterStill Searching

Below league average across the board.

Barnes is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.491 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 6th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (5th percentile).

63 batters faced · data through 2026-09-08.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 490 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Mason BlackRoyalsLucas ErcegRoyalsLucas GiolitoPadresRyan WeissAstros

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Charlie Barnes mixes his four-seam fastball (33%) and sinker (21%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the four-seam fastball has come closest.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

−1 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

allowed 35 bases vs a replacement arm's 34 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

5.0 bases cost vs league average, across 67 pitches — 7.5 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
33%
89.3 mph · LHP median 93.6
—
cost 7.4 per 1005.0 total
Sinker
not charted
21%
89.2 mph · LHP median 93.0
—
—
Slider
not charted
21%
83.6 mph · LHP median 86.0
—
—
Changeup
not charted
18%
82.4 mph · LHP median 85.1
—
—
Sweeper
not charted
7%
78.2 mph · LHP median 81.2
—
—

Only his four-seam fastball is in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Compared with the league, his four-seam fastball tilts 19 points more toward lefties.

Four-Seam Fastball
41% vs LHH · LHP median 34%
29% vs RHH · LHP median 41%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among left-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — 142 of them. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his four-seam fastball is in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.048

vs LHB23 PA0.520

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.520 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.499 to 0.544, based on 23 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.407 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHB rate (0.407) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB40 PA0.559

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.559 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.538 to 0.581, based on 40 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.673 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.437 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHB rate (0.673) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.4200.4640.5090.5540.598
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Charlie Barnes landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Jonah HeimHome run
EV 105 mph · LA 28° · EB 3.7
07/01 vs Athletics
vs Shea LangeliersHome run
EV 104 mph · LA 27° · EB 3.6
07/01 vs Athletics
vs Alika WilliamsHome run
EV 100 mph · LA 37° · EB 3.0
07/01 vs Athletics
vs Adolis GarcíaDouble
EV 103 mph · LA 13° · EB 2.1
04/13 vs Phillies
vs Colby ThomasDouble
EV 99 mph · LA 18° · EB 1.5
07/01 vs Athletics

Luck check

Burned 4 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Edmundo SosaSingleCheap hit
EV 87 mph · LA -11° · EB 0.1 · xBA .079
04/13 vs Phillies
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.