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Connor Brogdon

2026
Guardians· RHP · throws R· 16.0 IP· 5.06 ERA· 1.13 WHIP· 70 batters faced

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Cbetter than 46% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
RelieverPower Arm

Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.

Brogdon sits right around league average

The simulator expects him to allow 0.456 bases per batter faced, better than 46% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting walks (82nd percentile). His weakest skill is limiting home runs (1st percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.

His grade rests on 70 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together. He has not reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA.

Dean KremerTwinsAaron NolaPhilliesPaxton SchultzNationalsWill WarrenYankees

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Connor Brogdon leans on his four-seam fastball (48% of pitches). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 0.7 bases per 100 thrown against league average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

−1 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 38 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 37 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He cost 4.6 bases against league average across 245 pitches, or 1.9 per 100 pitches.

Four-Seam Fastball
48%
94.6 mph · RHP median 95.1
28% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 4.0 per 1005.3 total
Changeup
40%
83.9 mph · RHP median 87.1
23% whiffs · Lg median 30%
saved 0.7 per 1000.7 total
Cutter
not charted
10%
87.3 mph · RHP median 90.1
—
—

His cutter isn't in the charts below, because only 29 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

He rarely throws his curveball (3% of his pitches).

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
44% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
51% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
Changeup
46% vs LHH · RHP median 30%
33% vs RHH · RHP median 12%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (RHP median). Medians come from right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. Between 114 and 384 of them qualify, depending on the pitch. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Connor Brogdon's pitch movement, 2026

Connor Brogdon's pitch movement, 20266121861218in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 16.3 in
+0.6 vs Lg median
Break 8.7 in
+1.0 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
ChangeupCH
Rise 7.8 in
+3.7 vs Lg median
Break 15.6 in
+1.4 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The “changed” verdict removes a league-wide drift that the trail still shows, so a long trail can read as steady. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. His cutter isn't in these charts, because only 29 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.041 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049

vs LHB32 PA0.485

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.485 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.462 to 0.506, based on 32 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.498 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

vs RHB38 PA0.443

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.443 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.421 to 0.466, based on 38 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.556 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs RHB (0.556) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

0.4110.4380.4640.4900.516
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Connor Brogdon this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Luke RaleyHome run
109 mph · 31° · worth 3.8 bases
03/28 vs Mariners
vs Isaac ParedesHome run
104 mph · 24° · worth 3.3 bases
04/20 vs Astros
vs Jeremiah JacksonHome run
102 mph · 33° · worth 3.2 bases
04/17 vs Orioles
vs Matt ShawOutLucky out
102 mph · 25° · worth 2.2 bases
04/03 vs Cubs
vs Vinnie PasquantinoHome run
102 mph · 27° · worth 1.9 bases
05/07 vs Royals

Luck check

2 outs behind him came on balls the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.

vs Matt ShawOutLucky out
102 mph · 25° · worth 2.2 bases
04/03 vs Cubs
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Deserved vs. actual

Batters have been credited with about the bases their contact off Connor Brogdon deserved.

Deserved by the contact he allowed33
Actually credited to batters33

Both bars count 51 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.

ERA 5.06 · WHIP 1.13 · BABIP against 0.217 (Lg median 0.286)

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Connor Brogdon

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is down, his K% is down, his Barrel% against is up, his Hard-hit% against is up, his GB% against is up and his Pull% against is up.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.