Connor Brogdon
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Brogdon sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.453 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 50th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (80th percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (1st percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
67 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Arsenal
Connor Brogdon leans on his four-seam fastball (48% of pitches). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 0.8 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 38 bases vs a replacement arm's 35 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
5.3 bases cost vs league average, across 233 pitches — 2.3 per 100.
His cutter isn't in the charts below — only 27 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Rarely used: curveball (3%)
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Mix by batter side
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Connor Brogdon's pitch movement, 2026
His Four-Seam Fastball has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His cutter isn't in these charts — only 27 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.051
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.485 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.462 to 0.507, based on 29 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.508 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.443 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.421 to 0.466, based on 38 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.556 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.556) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Connor Brogdon.
over 50 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.28 · WHIP 1.11 · BABIP against 0.200 (Lg median 0.287)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs RoyalsApr 8, 2026score only
5 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.6
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs Blue JaysApr 25, 2026score only
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs MarinersMar 26, 2026score only
4 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +0.7
- vs CardinalsApr 15, 2026score only
7 BF · 0 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.9
- Above replacement
- +0.7
- vs RoyalsMay 4, 2026score only
6 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.4
- Above replacement
- +0.7
Trends
Multi-season trends · Connor Brogdon
HR allowed% up, BB% down, K% down, Barrel% against up, GB% against up, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.