Connor Brogdon

2026

Guardians· RHP · throws R· 15.1 IP· 5.28 ERA· 1.11 WHIP· 67 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what

F13th percentile run prevention

RelieverHittable Strike-Thrower

Pounds the zone, but too much of it gets hit hard.

Brogdon is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.512 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 13th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (77th percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (1st percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.

Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 424 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
67 batters faced · data through 2026-07-29.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Blas CastañoRockies

Matthew LiberatoreCardinals

Brandon WilliamsonReds

Erick FeddeWhite Sox

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Connor Brogdon leans on his four-seam fastball (48% of pitches). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 0.8 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

−4 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

allowed 38 bases vs a replacement arm's 34 over the same batters faced

Results

All pitches

cost 2.3 per 1005.3 cost across 233

Four-Seam Fastball

48% +6 pts vs '25

94.5 mph · lg 95.1 −1.0 mph vs '25

22% whiffs · lg 18%

cost 4.7 per 1006.1 cost across 129

Changeup

39% −3 pts vs '25

83.9 mph · lg 87.2 −0.1 mph vs '25

24% whiffs · lg 29%

saved 0.8 per 1000.8 saved across 104

Cutter

10% −6 pts vs '25

87.1 mph · lg 90.1 +0.3 mph vs '25

—

Rarely used: curveball (3%)

Mix by batter side

How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Four-Seam Fastball

45% vs LHH

51% vs RHH

Changeup

46% vs LHH

33% vs RHH

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 50% probable range. Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Gray tick (marked “lg”) = league median vs that side; the faint gray band behind it spans the middle half of the league (25th–75th percentile).
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

vs LHB29 PA0.536

vs RHB38 PA0.495

0.3880.4350.4830.5310.578

← better (fewer bases allowed)worse →

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.048

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Connor Brogdon landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two; use the ▶ links below to watch on Baseball Savant.

hit · out

EBlowhigh

vs Luke RaleyHome run

EV 109 mph · LA 31° · EB 3.8

03/28 vs Mariners

vs Isaac ParedesHome run

EV 104 mph · LA 24° · EB 3.3

04/20 vs Astros

vs Jeremiah JacksonHome run

EV 102 mph · LA 33° · EB 3.2

04/17 vs Orioles

vs Matt ShawOutRobbed

EV 102 mph · LA 25° · EB 2.2

04/03 vs Cubs

vs Vinnie PasquantinoHome run

EV 102 mph · LA 27° · EB 1.9

05/07 vs Royals

Luck check

Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.

vs Matt ShawOutRobbed

EV 102 mph · LA 25° · EB 2.2

04/03 vs Cubs

Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Dylan BeaversSingleCheap hit

EV 97 mph · LA -17° · EB 0.1 · xBA .106

04/17 vs Orioles

Earned vs. actual

Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

Earned off his contact allowed33

Actually credited to batters32

Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Connor Brogdon.

over 50 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

ERA 5.28 · WHIP 1.11 · BABIP against 0.200 (lg 0.288)

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Date	Opponent	Result	Bases allowed	Above replacement
Apr 8, 2026	Royals	5 BF · 3 K	0.6	+1.9
Apr 25, 2026	Blue Jays	3 BF · 2 K	0.1	+1.4
Mar 26, 2026	Mariners	4 BF · 1 K, 1 H	1.3	+0.7
Apr 15, 2026	Cardinals	7 BF · 0 K, 1 BB, 2 H	2.9	+0.7
May 4, 2026	Royals	6 BF · 1 K, 1 H	2.4	+0.6