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Connor Brogdon

2026
Guardians· RHP · throws R· 15.1 IP· 5.28 ERA· 1.11 WHIP· 67 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
C+better than 50% of pitchers at limiting bases
RelieverPower Arm

Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.

Brogdon sits right around league average

The simulator expects 0.453 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 50th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (80th percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (1st percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.

67 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Connor Brogdon leans on his four-seam fastball (48% of pitches). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 0.8 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

−3 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

allowed 38 bases vs a replacement arm's 35 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

5.3 bases cost vs league average, across 233 pitches — 2.3 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
48%
94.5 mph · RHP median 95.1
28% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 4.7 per 1006.1 total
Changeup
39%
83.9 mph · RHP median 87.1
24% whiffs · Lg median 30%
saved 0.8 per 1000.8 total
Cutter
not charted
10%
87.1 mph · RHP median 90.2

His cutter isn't in the charts below — only 27 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

Rarely used: curveball (3%)

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
45% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
51% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
Changeup
46% vs LHH · RHP median 29%
33% vs RHH · RHP median 12%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — between 111 and 371 of them, depending on the pitch. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Connor Brogdon's pitch movement, 2026

His Four-Seam Fastball has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.

Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.

Connor Brogdon's pitch movement, 20266121861218in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 16.3 in
+0.7 vs Lg median
Break 8.7 in
+1.0 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
ChangeupCH
Rise 8.0 in
+3.9 vs Lg median
Break 15.8 in
+1.7 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Early season → nowLg medianCurrent-dot uncertainty
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current shape — horizontal break (arm side vs. glove side) by induced vertical break (rise vs. drop). Both axes are in inches of break. The trail runs from this season's earliest tracked outings — the faint, thin end — up to today's solid dot; a trail with only a few segments just means fewer tracked outings. The soft halo around each dot is how far that dot could sit off on its own, just from ordinary outing-to-outing wobble. Don't read a long trail as proof on its own that a pitch changed. Every pitch in baseball loses a little break through midsummer and gets it back by September — the same shift two full seasons back agree on — and the trail shows that league-wide seasonal swing alongside whatever this pitcher did himself. The sentence at the top of this card has the league's share taken out, so it can read “has not moved” above a trail that looks long. That is the two marks measuring different things, not a mistake. A pitch counts as changed only once it sits at least two inches from its own early-season shape — a verdict about this pitcher against himself, never a comparison with anyone else. League median: the small hollow ring marks it, on the same two measurements. Where it sits far from a pitch's dot, a line joins the two — and on a wider screen the ring carries that pitch's code as well — so a distant ring is never orphaned; where it sits close, neither is drawn, because the pairing is already obvious. League median is missing entirely for a pitch marked *: too few pitchers throw it for one to be worth setting, so it is plotted without a reference ring. For the exact dates a pitch changed, see the by-appearance chart below.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His cutter isn't in these charts — only 27 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.051

vs LHB29 PA0.485

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.485 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.462 to 0.507, based on 29 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.508 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

vs RHB38 PA0.443

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.443 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.421 to 0.466, based on 38 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.556 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHB rate (0.556) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.4110.4380.4640.4910.518
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Connor Brogdon landed this season.
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Earned vs. actual

Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Connor Brogdon.

Earned off his contact allowed33
Actually credited to batters32

over 50 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

ERA 5.28 · WHIP 1.11 · BABIP against 0.200 (Lg median 0.287)

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Connor Brogdon

HR allowed% up, BB% down, K% down, Barrel% against up, GB% against up, Pull% against up vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.