Paxton Schultz
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Schultz has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.458 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 42nd percentile of qualified pitchers. Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
153 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Paxton Schultz.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Paxton Schultz | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .567 | .528 | 42nd |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 9% | 9% | 60th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 21% | 22% | 40th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Paxton Schultz mixes his cutter (45%) and four-seam fastball (34%). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 5.1 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 74 bases vs a replacement arm's 79 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
0.8 bases saved vs league average, across 567 pitches — 0.1 per 100.
His slider isn't in the charts below — only 43 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
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Mix by batter side
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Paxton Schultz's pitch movement, 2026
His Changeup has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His slider isn't in these charts — only 43 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.037 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.046
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.477 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.456 to 0.498, based on 78 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.397 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.397) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.440 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.418 to 0.460, based on 76 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.562 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.562) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 3 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 6 more bases than their contact off Paxton Schultz earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 107 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 6.40 · WHIP 1.70 · BABIP against 0.372 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs MarlinsJun 1, 2026
7 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.6
- Above replacement
- +3.0
- vs RedsMay 12, 2026
9 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.6
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs BrewersMay 1, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +1.3
- vs RaysJun 21, 2026
4 BF · 0 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +1.3
- vs BrewersApr 10, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +1.3
Trends
Multi-season trends · Paxton Schultz
HR allowed% down, K% down, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against up, GB% against down, FB% against up, Pull% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.