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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Braves at Orioles · Jul 24, 2026

Braves
7
Final
Orioles
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Braves 12% · tied 8% · Orioles 80%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
7
6
Est. bases
17.9
17.6
Total bases
19
14
Home runs
2
1
Barrels
3
4
Walks/HBP
0
7
Strikeouts
12
10
GIDP
1
0
Stolen bases
0
2
Left on base
5
10
Errors
1
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Orioles lead on deserved runs by 3.1.

Orioles deserved lead ↑
0+2+4+6+3.1-1
Braves deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Braves +0.0 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Orioles +1.2 (80% band 0.0 to +2.0) · this inning +1.2 deserved runs · actual Orioles +2Through inning 3: deserved Orioles +1.6 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual Orioles +2Through inning 4: deserved Orioles +1.7 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Orioles +1Through inning 5: deserved Orioles +2.4 (80% band 0.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.7 deserved runs · actual Orioles +1Through inning 6: deserved Orioles +3.2 (80% band 0.0 to +6.0) · this inning +0.9 deserved runs · actual Orioles +1Through inning 7: deserved Orioles +3.2 (80% band 0.0 to +6.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual Orioles +1Through inning 8: deserved Orioles +2.1 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning -1.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 9: deserved Orioles +3.1 (80% band -1.0 to +7.0) · this inning +1.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 10: deserved Orioles +3.1 (80% band -1.0 to +7.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual Braves +112345678910

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualOrioles sideBraves side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Braves
Orioles
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Braves
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Orioles
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Braves
Orioles
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Bravespitching
Grant Holmes5.0 IP · 22 BF · 5 K · 2 BB
2.3 bases cost

His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.7 bases better than average on 30 pitches. The Four-Seamer got hit — 5 balls in play worth 6.6 expected bases.

Sinker10 thrown (11% tonight, season 11%)
−0.4 bases saved
Curveball6 thrown (7% tonight, season 8%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Changeup3 thrown (3% tonight, season 7%)
+0.4 bases cost
Danny Young0.7 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
0.4 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 14 pitches.

Sinker14 thrown (64% tonight, season 49%)
−0.9 bases saved
Sweeper7 thrown (32% tonight, season 49%)
+0.5 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown
0.0 bases
Tyler Kinley0.3 IP · 1 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases cost

Faced only 1 batter.

Four-Seamer1 thrown (25% tonight, season 16%)
−0.1 bases saved
Elieser Hernández3.0 IP · 13 BF · 2 K · 3 BB
1.5 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 2.2 bases better than average on 18 pitches. 3 of his 7 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Dylan Lee1.0 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
2.3 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.6 expected bases. Overall 2.3 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Four-Seamer4 thrown (20% tonight, season 32%)
−0.2 bases saved
Oriolespitching
Trevor Rogers7.0 IP · 26 BF · 6 K · 0 BB
3.9 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.9 bases better than average on 37 pitches. 8 of his 18 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Cutter4 thrown (5% tonight, season 9%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Rico Garcia1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
2.3 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.6 expected bases. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Four-Seamer5 thrown (28% tonight, season 34%) · 1 whiff
−0.6 bases saved
Tyler Wells1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

About an average night — −0.8 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Cutter4 thrown (24% tonight, season 30%) · 2 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Changeup3 thrown (18% tonight, season 23%)
0.0 bases
Curveball3 thrown (18% tonight, season 4%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Andrew Kittredge0.7 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
2.1 bases cost

His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 7 pitches. 3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Slider.

Grant Wolfram0.3 IP · 2 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 2 batters.

Four-Seamer3 thrown (38% tonight, season 24%)
−0.2 bases saved
Curveball2 thrown (25% tonight, season 16%)
0.0 bases
Sinker1 thrown (13% tonight, season 39%)
0.0 bases
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Braves
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Orioles
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Christian Encarnacion-Strand hit it

Every ball Christian Encarnacion-Strand hit this game, where it landed.

333'406'318'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −0.5 bases behind deserved.

5 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP0 K105.9 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 7Deserved: 7.5
PA 1 vs Grant Holmes: double — 2.8 deserved basesPA 2 vs Grant Holmes: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 3 vs Danny Young: walkPA 4 vs Elieser Hernández: out — 0.0 deserved basesPA 5 vs Dylan Lee: home run — 3.6 deserved bases
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball71%

2.8 deserved bases on contact

Breaking21%

0.1 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed7%

3.6 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Dylan Lee
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.6
Grant Holmes
Actual
2.0
Deserved
2.9
Danny Young
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Elieser Hernández
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Braves29 BIP · 0 BB/HBP
333'406'318'
Orioles27 BIP · 7 BB/HBP
333'406'318'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Oriole Park at Camden Yards — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information