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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Astros at Cubs · May 23, 2026

Astros
3
Final
Cubs
0
Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Astros 68% · tied 18% · Cubs 14%
How win probability is simulated
  • The simulator replays this game ten thousand times, re-rolling every batted ball from its exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle.
  • Walks, strikeouts and baserunning stay as they happened.
  • The share of replays each team wins is how often it "deserved to win," whatever the real scoreboard said.
  • The gray slice, when there is one, is the share of replays still tied after nine innings.

Team comparison

Both teams' bars grow from the left edge, and longer means more of that stat.

Runs
3
0
Estimated bases
13.6
5.7
Total bases
13
3
Home runs
2
0
Barrels
3
0
Walks/HBP
4
3
Strikeouts
5
9
Double plays hit into
0
2
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
5
3
Errors
0
0
How to read this chart
Longer means more of that stat. More is better for runs, bases, home runs, barrels, walks and hit-by-pitches, and stolen bases. More is worse for strikeouts, double plays (GIDP), runners left on base and errors.

Batting

Bases created

Bases created are estimated bases on contact plus one base per walk or hit-by-pitch.

Astros
Cubs
How to read this chart
Each bar is one hitter, ranked from most bases created to least, and longer is better. The number under a name is his plate appearances (PA). Bars are grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Each bar shows how many more bases a hitter created than a free bench bat would have.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free. Each bar shows how many more bases a hitter created than that bench bat would have in the same plate appearances. Bars on the “Above replacement” side beat it, and bars on the “Below replacement” side fell short. Because every hitter is measured against his own baseline, a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter share one scale.

Hitter batted-ball luck

Each batter's net luck is his actual bases on contact minus what that contact deserved.

Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
Even
Dead even
Cubs
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” bases are estimated bases, what contact like that usually earns wherever it lands. A bar to the right means he got more than his contact deserved, and a bar to the left means less. Tap a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Bases given up are estimated bases on contact plus one per walk, so lower is better.

Astros
Cubs
How to read this chart
Each bar is one pitcher, sorted from most bases given up to least, and shorter is better. The number under a name is the batters he faced (BF). Bars are grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Each bar shows how many bases a pitcher saved compared with a free replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free. Each bar compares a pitcher with that arm facing the same batters, and a bar on the “Better” side means he allowed fewer bases than it would have. Starters and relievers get separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

The two staffs are compared row by row, and the longer bar is the bigger number.

How to read this chart
More is better for the pitchers on every row except walks and earned runs, where lower is better, and batters faced, which only counts the workload. Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see each pitcher’s line.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type earns bases saved or cost against an average pitcher in the same counts.

Astrospitching
Kai-Wei Teng6.0 IP · 20 BF · 6 K · 3 BB
1.8 bases saved

His Sweeper was his best pitch, 2.6 bases better than average over 36 pitches. Hitters did their damage against his Curveball, with 1 ball in play worth 2.0 expected bases.

Changeup6 thrown (7% in this game, 10% this season) · 2 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Slider6 thrown · 2 whiffs
−0.1 bases saved
Steven Okert1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

He faced only 3 batters. His Slider was his best pitch, 1.1 bases better than average over 8 pitches.

Four-Seamer2 thrown (18% in this game, 28% this season)
+0.2 bases cost
Enyel De Los Santos1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

He faced only 3 batters.

Four-Seamer2 thrown (25% in this game, 44% this season) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Bryan King1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases saved

He had about an average night, −0.7 bases against average over 4 batters.

Sinker1 thrown (5% in this game, 17% this season)
+0.2 bases cost
Cubspitching
Colin Rea7.0 IP · 27 BF · 4 K · 3 BB
0.4 bases cost

Hitters did their damage against his Four-Seamer, with 6 balls in play worth 4.1 expected bases. His Changeup was his best pitch, 1.1 bases better than average over 16 pitches.

Cutter2 thrown (2% in this game, 6% this season)
−0.1 bases saved
Curveball1 thrown (1% in this game, 6% this season)
−0.1 bases saved
Trent Thornton1.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
2.1 bases cost

Hitters did their damage against his Sinker, with 2 balls in play worth 1.7 expected bases. Overall, he was 2.1 bases worse than an average pitcher in the same counts.

Sweeper3 thrown (21% in this game, 19% this season)
+0.2 bases cost
Cutter2 thrown (14% in this game, 22% this season) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Ryan Rolison1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases saved

He had about an average night, −0.7 bases against average over 4 batters.

Curveball3 thrown (19% in this game, 16% this season)
+0.3 bases cost
Sweeper3 thrown (19% in this game, 15% this season)
−0.3 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against an average pitcher in the same count. A strike, a whiff or weak contact beats that average, and a ball or hard contact falls short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher would allow, and “cost” means more, so saved is better.
  • The “Bases above replacement” board higher up measures the whole outing against a freely available fill-in arm, an easier bar, so the same outing scores a few bases better there.
  • Tap a pitch row to see the balls hit against it.

Pitcher batted-ball luck

Each pitcher's net luck is what his opponents' contact deserved minus the bases it got.

Astros
Lucky
Dead even
Cubs
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” bases are estimated bases on his opponents' contact. A bar to the right means he allowed fewer bases than that contact deserved. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in. Lucky means hard contact found gloves. Tap a pitcher to see his biggest luck swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what he actually did. The cards show every ball he hit or allowed, every pitch he saw or threw, and how he did against each opponent.

Where Christian Walker hit it

Each dot is a ball Christian Walker hit in this game, drawn where it landed.

355'405'353'
Est. baseslowhigh

Actual vs. deserved bases

He finished 5.2 bases ahead of what his contact deserved.

4 PA3 H1 BB0 HBP0 K105.6 mph Hardest hit

Bases, running totalActual: 10Deserved: 4.8
PA 1 vs Colin Rea: home run (1.9 deserved bases)PA 2 vs Colin Rea: home run (0.9 deserved bases)PA 3 vs Colin Rea: single (1.0 deserved bases)PA 4 vs Trent Thornton: walk
BB
How to read this chart
The solid line adds up the bases he actually got, one plate appearance at a time. The dashed line adds up what his contact deserved, with estimated bases on balls in play and one base for each walk or hit-by-pitch. When the solid line finishes higher, he got more than his contact earned. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Each bar is his share of pitches seen by type, with the deserved bases he got on contact.

Fastball75%

1.9 deserved bases on contact

Breaking25%

1.9 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Each row shows actual and deserved bases against one opponent, most deserved first.

Colin Rea
Actual
9.0
Deserved
3.8
Trent Thornton
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances. BB is a walk, HBP is a hit by pitch, K is a strikeout, and a dot is a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row. More bases is better for a hitter and worse for a pitcher.

Batted balls

These are all the balls put in play in this game, where each one landed, and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Each dot is one ball in play, split by team and drawn on Wrigley Field.

Astros26 balls in play · 4 walks or hit-by-pitches
355'405'353'
Cubs18 balls in play · 3 walks or hit-by-pitches
355'405'353'
Est. baseslowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
A bigger dot was hit harder. Color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate for an easy out to dark teal for home-run territory. Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. The Wrigley Field outfield wall is drawn from its real dimensions.

The table opens on the game's most valuable batted balls, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Higher estimated bases means better contact. Tap a row for its outcome odds and a Savant video link. Show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution