Trent Thornton
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Thornton is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.480 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 16th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Strikeouts (11th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
158 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Trent Thornton.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Trent Thornton | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .534 | .528 | 16th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 47th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 18% | 22% | 11th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Trent Thornton mixes his four-seam fastball (36%) and cutter (22%). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 1.5 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 79 bases vs a replacement arm's 81 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
9.4 bases cost vs league average, across 533 pitches — 1.8 per 100.
His sinker isn't in the charts below — only 48 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Rarely used: changeup (0%)
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Mix by batter side
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Trent Thornton's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His sinker isn't in these charts — only 48 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.498 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.477 to 0.520, based on 66 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.550 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.550) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.458 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.437 to 0.479, based on 92 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.474 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 4 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 16 fewer bases than their contact off Trent Thornton earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 120 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 2.43 · WHIP 1.08 · BABIP against 0.215 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs White SoxMay 15, 2026
6 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs CardinalsMay 31, 2026
7 BF · 1 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.7
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs DodgersAug 3, 2026
4 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs PiratesJul 26, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs NationalsAug 11, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Trent Thornton
HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.