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Cubs at Cardinals · May 31, 2026
Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Cubs 70% · tied 13% · Cardinals 18%
Cardinals stole one
Cubs did more to deserve the win, but Cardinals took it 5-1.
- This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
- The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.