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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jun 24, 2026
Brewers
6
Final
Reds
5
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Brewers 9% · tied 5% · Reds 86%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
6
5
Est. bases
16.5
18.3
Total bases
22
18
Home runs
2
1
Barrels
4
2
Walks/HBP
5
12
Strikeouts
10
10
GIDP
0
2
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
9
16
Errors
1
0

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Brewers
Reds
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Brewers
Lucky
Unlucky
Reds
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Brewers
Reds
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Brewerspitching
Shane Drohan4.3 IP · 20 BF · 5 K · 3 BB
0.1 bases cost

The Curveball got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.0 expected bases. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 27 pitches.

Changeup4 thrown (4% tonight, season 5%)
0.0 bases
Chad Patrick1.7 IP · 9 BF · 1 K · 3 BB
1.8 bases cost

The Cutter got hit — 2 balls in play worth 1.2 expected bases. Overall 1.8 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Grant Anderson0.7 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
3.7 bases cost

The Sweeper got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.3 expected bases. Overall 3.7 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sinker2 thrown (8% tonight, season 23%)
+0.1 bases cost
Craig Yoho1.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
2.4 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 1 ball in play worth 2.6 expected bases. Overall 2.4 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Joel Kuhnel1.3 IP · 7 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
0.6 bases cost

About an average night — +0.6 bases vs average on 7 batters.

Slider2 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Four-Seamer1 thrown (3% tonight, season 6%)
+0.1 bases cost
Redspitching
Rhett Lowder5.7 IP · 27 BF · 6 K · 1 BB
1.4 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 4 balls in play worth 6.5 expected bases. His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.5 bases better than average on 35 pitches.

Sweeper1 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Sam Moll1.0 IP · 7 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
0.1 bases cost

About an average night — +0.1 bases vs average on 7 batters.

Sweeper9 thrown (41% tonight, season 36%) · 1 whiff
+0.3 bases cost
Four-Seamer1 thrown (5% tonight, season 12%)
+0.5 bases cost
Tejay Antone1.3 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases cost

About an average night — +0.7 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Curveball3 thrown (18% tonight, season 13%)
0.0 bases
Cutter2 thrown (12% tonight, season 17%)
−0.2 bases saved
Four-Seamer1 thrown (6% tonight, season 6%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Brock Burke1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Changeup4 thrown (27% tonight, season 17%)
+0.1 bases cost
Slider3 thrown (20% tonight, season 28%)
+0.3 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Brewers
Lucky
Unlucky
Reds
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Jake Bauers hit it

Every ball Jake Bauers hit this game, where it landed.

328'412'325'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

5 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP1 K109.8 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 5.8
PA 1 vs Rhett Lowder: strikeoutPA 2 vs Rhett Lowder: home run — 3.8 deserved basesPA 3 vs Rhett Lowder: single — 1.0 deserved basesPA 4 vs Sam Moll: walkPA 5 vs Brock Burke: out — 0.1 deserved bases
K
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking43%
Fastball38%

1.0 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed19%

3.8 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Rhett Lowder
K
Actual
5.0
Deserved
4.7
Sam Moll
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Brock Burke
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Great American Ball Park.

Brewers27 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
328'412'325'
Reds26 BIP · 12 BB/HBP
328'412'325'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Great American Ball Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information