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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Aug 6, 2026
Twins
4
Final
Royals
3
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Twins 75% · tied 11% · Royals 14%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
4
3
Est. bases
12.7
12.4
Total bases
11
8
Home runs
1
0
Barrels
2
2
Walks/HBP
8
1
Strikeouts
4
4
GIDP
0
1
Stolen bases
0
1
Left on base
10
3
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Twins lead on deserved runs by 2.3.

Royals deserved lead ↑
-6-4-20+2-2.3-1
Twins deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved even (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Twins +0.3 (80% band -1.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Royals +0.2 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.5 deserved runs · actual Royals +2Through inning 4: deserved Royals +0.1 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Royals +2Through inning 5: deserved Twins +1.0 (80% band -3.0 to +1.0) · this inning -1.1 deserved runs · actual Royals +1Through inning 6: deserved Twins +0.5 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.5 deserved runs · actual Royals +2Through inning 7: deserved Twins +0.6 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Royals +2Through inning 8: deserved Twins +2.1 (80% band -5.0 to +1.0) · this inning -1.5 deserved runs · actual Twins +1Through inning 9: deserved Twins +2.3 (80% band -6.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Twins +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualRoyals sideTwins side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Twins
Royals
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Twins
Lucky
Unlucky
Royals
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Twins
Royals
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Twinspitching
Bailey Ober6.0 IP · 23 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 9 balls in play worth 6.0 expected bases. His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 11 pitches.

Kody Funderburk1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Sinker5 thrown (25% tonight, season 35%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Sweeper2 thrown (10% tonight, season 20%)
−0.3 bases saved
Andrew Morris1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.0 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 10 pitches.

Yoendrys Gómez1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Four-Seamer12 thrown (67% tonight, season 44%) · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Cutter3 thrown (17% tonight, season 15%)
+0.4 bases cost
Sweeper3 thrown (17% tonight, season 25%)
−0.3 bases saved
Royalspitching
Michael Wacha5.7 IP · 22 BF · 1 K · 3 BB
1.8 bases cost

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 2.0 bases better than average on 29 pitches. The Sinker got hit — 4 balls in play worth 5.3 expected bases.

Curveball11 thrown (12% tonight, season 10%)
+0.5 bases cost
Slider8 thrown (9% tonight, season 9%)
+0.2 bases cost
Jose Cuas0.3 IP · 1 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases cost

Faced only 1 batter.

Four-Seamer7 thrown (58% tonight, season 40%)
+0.1 bases cost
Cutter2 thrown (17% tonight, season 6%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Sweeper2 thrown (17% tonight, season 20%)
+0.1 bases cost
Alex Lange1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases saved

About an average night — −0.5 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Cutter3 thrown (25% tonight, season 12%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Sinker2 thrown (17% tonight, season 24%)
+0.2 bases cost
Aaron Bummer0.3 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.9 bases cost

About an average night — +0.9 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Curveball5 thrown (25% tonight, season 21%)
−0.1 bases saved
Four-Seamer2 thrown (10% tonight, season 8%)
+0.1 bases cost
Nate Pearson0.7 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.1 bases saved

About an average night — −0.1 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Slider2 thrown (11% tonight, season 36%)
+0.7 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown
−0.3 bases saved
Easton McGee1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.6 bases saved

About an average night — −0.6 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Four-Seamer1 thrown (7% tonight, season 30%)
0.0 bases
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Twins
Lucky
Royals
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Royce Lewis hit it

Every ball Royce Lewis hit this game, where it landed.

351'414'348'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −2.1 bases behind deserved.

5 PA1 H0 BB1 HBP0 K108.2 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 7.1
PA 1 vs Michael Wacha: out — 0.7 deserved basesPA 2 vs Michael Wacha: home run — 3.9 deserved basesPA 3 vs Jose Cuas: out — 1.1 deserved basesPA 4 vs Nate Pearson: hit by pitchPA 5 vs Easton McGee: out — 0.5 deserved bases
HBP
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball62%

5.6 deserved bases on contact

Breaking31%

0.5 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed7%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Michael Wacha
Actual
4.0
Deserved
4.5
Jose Cuas
Actual
0.0
Deserved
1.1
Nate Pearson
HBP
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Easton McGee
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.5
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Kauffman Stadium.

Twins29 BIP · 8 BB/HBP
351'414'348'
Royals28 BIP · 1 BB/HBP
351'414'348'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Kauffman Stadium — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information