Aaron Bummer

2026

Braves· LHP · throws L· 15.1 IP· 7.63 ERA· 1.83 WHIP· 77 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what

F3rd percentile run prevention

RelieverHittable Strike-Thrower

Pounds the zone, but too much of it gets hit hard.

Bummer is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.555 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 3rd percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Quiet Contact (2nd percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.

Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 424 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
77 batters faced · data through 2026-07-29.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Germán MárquezPadres

Trevor MartinRays

Chris MartinRangers

Max ScherzerBlue Jays

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Aaron Bummer mixes his sinker (39%) and curveball (23%). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 1.3 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

−6 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

allowed 45 bases vs a replacement arm's 39 over the same batters faced

Results

All pitches

cost 4.1 per 1009.3 cost across 226

Sinker

39% +4 pts vs '25

90.2 mph · lg 93.2 −0.6 mph vs '25

14% whiffs · lg 11%

saved 1.3 per 1001.4 saved across 109

Curveball

23% −12 pts vs '25

80.1 mph · lg 80.0 −0.9 mph vs '25

19% whiffs · lg 27%

cost 11.3 per 1007.4 cost across 65

Sweeper

18% +1 pts vs '25

80.5 mph · lg 81.2 −0.7 mph vs '25

—

cost 6.4 per 1003.3 cost across 52

Cutter

12% +12 pts vs '25

87.7 mph · lg 87.9 −0.4 mph vs '25

—

Four-Seam Fastball

9% −4 pts vs '25

90.5 mph · lg 93.5 −1.2 mph vs '25

—

Mix by batter side

How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Sinker

51% vs LHH

25% vs RHH

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 50% probable range. Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Gray tick (marked “lg”) = league median vs that side; the faint gray band behind it spans the middle half of the league (25th–75th percentile).
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

vs LHB40 PA0.542

vs RHB37 PA0.580

0.3820.4430.5050.5660.627

← better (fewer bases allowed)worse →

Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.047

About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Aaron Bummer landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two; use the ▶ links below to watch on Baseball Savant.

Earned vs. actual

Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

Earned off his contact allowed35

Actually credited to batters39

Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Aaron Bummer.

over 53 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

ERA 7.63 · WHIP 1.83 · BABIP against 0.255 (lg 0.288)

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Date	Opponent	Result	Bases allowed	Above replacement
May 14, 2026	Cubs	4 BF · 1 K	0.2	+1.8
May 8, 2026	Dodgers	3 BF · 0 K	0.1	+1.4
Apr 6, 2026	Angels	3 BF · 1 K	0.2	+1.3
Apr 21, 2026	Nationals	3 BF · 1 K	0.2	+1.3
Apr 24, 2026	Phillies	4 BF · 0 K, 1 H	0.8	+1.2