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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Giants at Mets · Sep 5, 2026

Giants
9
Final
Mets
5
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Giants 89% · tied 5% · Mets 5%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
9
5
Est. bases
23.4
11.0
Total bases
29
9
Home runs
6
1
Barrels
5
2
Walks/HBP
2
4
Strikeouts
8
9
GIDP
1
0
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
1
5
Errors
1
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Giants lead on deserved runs by 3.7.

Mets deserved lead ↑
-6-4-20-3.7-4
Giants deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Giants +0.8 (80% band -1.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.8 deserved runs · actual Giants +1Through inning 2: deserved Giants +0.3 (80% band -1.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.5 deserved runs · actual Mets +1Through inning 3: deserved Giants +0.8 (80% band -2.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Giants +1Through inning 4: deserved Giants +0.5 (80% band -2.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual Giants +1Through inning 5: deserved Giants +2.5 (80% band -5.0 to -1.0) · this inning -2.0 deserved runs · actual Giants +4Through inning 6: deserved Giants +2.9 (80% band -5.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Giants +4Through inning 7: deserved Giants +1.8 (80% band -5.0 to +1.0) · this inning +1.0 deserved runs · actual Giants +3Through inning 8: deserved Giants +2.7 (80% band -6.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.9 deserved runs · actual Giants +5Through inning 9: deserved Giants +3.7 (80% band -7.0 to 0.0) · this inning -1.0 deserved runs · actual Giants +4123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualMets sideGiants side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Giants
Mets
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Giants
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Mets
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Giants
Mets
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Giantspitching
Anthony Molina5.0 IP · 18 BF · 6 K · 1 BB
1.6 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 2.2 bases better than average on 45 pitches. The Changeup got hit — 4 balls in play worth 4.1 expected bases.

Reiver Sanmartin1.3 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.6 expected bases.

Changeup6 thrown (26% tonight, season 26%) · 2 whiffs
−0.3 bases saved
Four-Seamer2 thrown (9% tonight, season 9%)
+0.2 bases cost
Joel Kuhnel0.3 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
even

Faced only 3 batters.

Cutter2 thrown (15% tonight, season 32%)
+0.1 bases cost
Carson Seymour0.3 IP · 2 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases cost

Faced only 2 batters.

Slider6 thrown (67% tonight, season 26%) · 3 whiffs
+0.4 bases cost
Trent Harris1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Sweeper2 thrown (29% tonight, season 27%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown (14% tonight, season 23%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Jason Foley1.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases cost

About an average night — +0.2 bases vs average on 6 batters.

Metspitching
Zac Thornton5.0 IP · 22 BF · 6 K · 1 BB
5.0 bases cost

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.7 bases better than average on 21 pitches. The Sweeper got hit — 6 balls in play worth 6.6 expected bases.

Curveball11 thrown (13% tonight, season 4%)
+0.1 bases cost
Changeup3 thrown (4% tonight, season 4%)
−0.3 bases saved
Chris Devenski2.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.0 bases saved

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Sweeper3 thrown (14% tonight, season 11%)
+0.1 bases cost
Cutter1 thrown
0.0 bases
Jefry Yan1.0 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.7 expected bases.

Changeup5 thrown (23% tonight, season 6%) · 2 whiffs
−0.3 bases saved
Slider4 thrown (18% tonight, season 24%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Justin Hagenman1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
3.9 bases cost

Overall 3.9 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Four-Seamer6 thrown (38% tonight, season 48%)
−0.2 bases saved
Changeup4 thrown (25% tonight, season 15%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Giants
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Mets
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where A.J. Ewing hit it

Every ball A.J. Ewing hit this game, where it landed.

335'419'330'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.7 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA1 H2 BB0 HBP0 K105.7 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 5.3
PA 1 vs Anthony Molina: home run — 3.1 deserved basesPA 2 vs Anthony Molina: out — 0.2 deserved basesPA 3 vs Joel Kuhnel: walkPA 4 vs Jason Foley: walk
BB
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball67%

0.2 deserved bases on contact

Breaking20%
Offspeed13%

3.1 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Anthony Molina
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.3
Joel Kuhnel
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Jason Foley
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Citi Field.

Giants27 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
335'419'330'
Mets24 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
335'419'330'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Citi Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information