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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jun 11, 2026
Dodgers
8
Final
Pirates
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Dodgers 80% · tied 7% · Pirates 13%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
8
6
Est. bases
14.9
16.0
Total bases
14
22
Home runs
1
2
Barrels
1
3
Walks/HBP
11
3
Strikeouts
7
10
GIDP
1
1
Stolen bases
1
0
Left on base
14
8
Errors
0
0

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Dodgers
Pirates
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Dodgers
Lucky
Unlucky
Pirates
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Dodgers
Pirates
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Dodgerspitching
Justin Wrobleski4.7 IP · 21 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
3.0 bases cost

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.9 bases better than average on 42 pitches. The Slider got hit — 6 balls in play worth 8.5 expected bases.

Changeup4 thrown (5% tonight, season 5%)
+0.4 bases cost
Will Klein1.0 IP · 7 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.1 bases cost

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 7 pitches. The Four-Seamer got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.2 expected bases.

Curveball4 thrown (18% tonight, season 16%)
+0.3 bases cost
Alex Vesia0.3 IP · 1 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Four-Seamer4 thrown (100% tonight, season 54%) · 2 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Jack Dreyer1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Four-Seamer6 thrown (55% tonight, season 47%) · 1 whiff
−0.6 bases saved
Curveball2 thrown (18% tonight, season 15%)
+0.1 bases cost
Edgardo Henriquez0.7 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases cost

About an average night — +0.9 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Four-Seamer3 thrown (20% tonight, season 32%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Slider3 thrown (20% tonight, season 23%)
+0.2 bases cost
Tanner Scott1.3 IP · 4 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
1.8 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 10 pitches. 4 of his 5 whiffs came on the Slider.

Slider10 thrown (56% tonight, season 53%) · 4 whiffs
−1.4 bases saved
Piratespitching
Mitch Keller4.0 IP · 24 BF · 3 K · 4 BB
5.5 bases cost

The Sweeper got hit — 3 balls in play worth 3.5 expected bases. His Cutter did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 17 pitches.

Yohan Ramírez2.0 IP · 8 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
0.8 bases saved

The Curveball got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases. His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 12 pitches.

Curveball7 thrown (20% tonight, season 13%)
+0.8 bases cost
Evan Sisk0.7 IP · 7 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases cost

The Sweeper got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases. His Curveball did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Sweeper8 thrown (26% tonight, season 16%)
+1.3 bases cost
Changeup2 thrown (6% tonight, season 9%)
+0.1 bases cost
Brandan Bidois1.3 IP · 7 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
1.4 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 17 pitches.

Changeup2 thrown (7% tonight, season 3%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Dennis Santana1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
even

Faced only 3 batters.

Four-Seamer4 thrown (25% tonight, season 29%)
−0.2 bases saved
Changeup1 thrown (6% tonight, season 15%)
0.0 bases
Cutter1 thrown (6% tonight, season 8%)
−0.1 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Dodgers
Lucky
Unlucky
Pirates
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Shohei Ohtani hit it

Every ball Shohei Ohtani hit this game, where it landed.

325'404'320'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +1.6 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA2 H2 BB0 HBP0 K108.7 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 7Deserved: 5.4
PA 1 vs Mitch Keller: walkPA 2 vs Mitch Keller: home run — 2.9 deserved basesPA 3 vs Mitch Keller: single — 0.5 deserved basesPA 4 vs Yohan Ramírez: walk
BB
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball59%

0.5 deserved bases on contact

Breaking41%

2.9 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Mitch Keller
BB
Actual
6.0
Deserved
4.4
Yohan Ramírez
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on PNC Park.

Dodgers31 BIP · 11 BB/HBP
325'404'320'
Pirates28 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
325'404'320'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. PNC Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information