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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Athletics at Rangers · Sep 1, 2026

Athletics
5
Final
Rangers
8
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Athletics 63% · tied 11% · Rangers 26%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
5
8
Est. bases
13.5
14.8
Total bases
14
17
Home runs
1
0
Barrels
2
3
Walks/HBP
9
4
Strikeouts
10
9
GIDP
1
0
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
14
8
Errors
0
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Athletics lead on deserved runs by 1.5.

Rangers deserved lead ↑
-50+5-1.5+3
Athletics deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Athletics +0.1 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Rangers +1Through inning 2: deserved Rangers +0.6 (80% band 0.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.7 deserved runs · actual Rangers +1Through inning 3: deserved Rangers +1.4 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.8 deserved runs · actual Rangers +1Through inning 4: deserved Rangers +0.7 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.7 deserved runs · actual Rangers +1Through inning 5: deserved Rangers +1.0 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual Rangers +4Through inning 6: deserved Rangers +2.8 (80% band 0.0 to +6.0) · this inning +1.8 deserved runs · actual Rangers +7Through inning 7: deserved Rangers +1.5 (80% band -2.0 to +5.0) · this inning -1.3 deserved runs · actual Rangers +6Through inning 8: deserved Rangers +0.6 (80% band -3.0 to +4.0) · this inning -1.0 deserved runs · actual Rangers +5Through inning 9: deserved Athletics +1.5 (80% band -6.0 to +3.0) · this inning -2.1 deserved runs · actual Rangers +3123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualRangers sideAthletics side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Athletics
Rangers
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Athletics
Lucky
Unlucky
Rangers
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Athletics
Rangers
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Athleticspitching
Brady Basso2.3 IP · 11 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.4 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 4 balls in play worth 2.8 expected bases. His Curveball did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 12 pitches.

Curveball12 thrown (30% tonight, season 19%) · 3 whiffs
−0.7 bases saved
Scott Blewett1.7 IP · 9 BF · 3 K · 2 BB
0.5 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 21 pitches. 3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Cutter.

Sinker5 thrown (13% tonight, season 11%)
+0.1 bases cost
Splitter4 thrown (11% tonight, season 8%) · 1 whiff
+0.3 bases cost
Slider3 thrown (8% tonight, season 26%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Luis Medina1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.7 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 6 pitches. Overall 1.7 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Slider6 thrown (29% tonight, season 17%) · 2 whiffs
0.0 bases
Curveball2 thrown (10% tonight, season 13%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown (5% tonight, season 14%)
0.0 bases
José Suarez0.7 IP · 7 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
4.1 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.9 expected bases. Overall 4.1 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Four-Seamer2 thrown (11% tonight, season 37%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Sweeper1 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Yunior Tur2.3 IP · 8 BF · 3 K · 1 BB
2.5 bases saved

His Splitter did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 11 pitches. 3 of his 6 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Slider1 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Rangerspitching
MacKenzie Gore5.3 IP · 25 BF · 4 K · 4 BB
2.0 bases saved

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.5 bases better than average on 18 pitches. The Curveball got hit — 3 balls in play worth 1.5 expected bases.

Cutter2 thrown (2% tonight, season 7%)
+0.5 bases cost
Chase Silseth0.7 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. 4 of his 5 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Splitter6 thrown (33% tonight, season 25%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Four-Seamer5 thrown (28% tonight, season 41%) · 4 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Sweeper5 thrown (28% tonight, season 20%)
−0.2 bases saved
Sinker2 thrown (11% tonight, season 14%)
+0.3 bases cost
Adam Macko1.0 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.9 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 2 balls in play worth 1.6 expected bases.

Changeup8 thrown (33% tonight, season 14%)
0.0 bases
Knuckle Curve1 thrown (4% tonight, season 7%)
0.0 bases
Trevor Williams1.3 IP · 10 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
4.0 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.3 expected bases. 3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Jacob Latz0.7 IP · 2 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases saved

Faced only 2 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Four-Seamer6 thrown (86% tonight, season 55%) · 3 whiffs
−0.8 bases saved
Slider1 thrown (14% tonight, season 18%)
−0.1 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Athletics
Lucky
Unlucky
Rangers
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Corey Seager hit it

Every ball Corey Seager hit this game, where it landed.

329'409'326'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −0.3 bases behind deserved.

5 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP1 K108.5 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 5.3
PA 1 vs Brady Basso: double — 1.0 deserved basesPA 2 vs Brady Basso: double — 2.4 deserved basesPA 3 vs Scott Blewett: walkPA 4 vs José Suarez: out — 0.9 deserved basesPA 5 vs Yunior Tur: strikeout
BB
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball45%

1.9 deserved bases on contact

Breaking36%

2.4 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed18%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Brady Basso
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.5
Scott Blewett
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
José Suarez
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.9
Yunior Tur
K
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Globe Life Field.

Athletics27 BIP · 9 BB/HBP
329'409'326'
Rangers27 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
329'409'326'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Globe Life Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information