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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jul 8, 2026
Astros
2
Final
Nationals
8
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Astros 0% · Nationals 100%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
2
8
Est. bases
9.0
18.3
Total bases
11
17
Home runs
0
2
Barrels
0
3
Walks/HBP
0
10
Strikeouts
10
3
GIDP
1
0
Stolen bases
1
2
Left on base
5
11
Errors
0
1

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Astros
Nationals
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
Nationals
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Astros
Nationals
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Astrospitching
Spencer Arrighetti4.0 IP · 25 BF · 2 K · 6 BB
9.6 bases cost

The Curveball got hit — 7 balls in play worth 8.5 expected bases. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 16 pitches.

Sweeper8 thrown (9% tonight, season 12%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Alimber Santa2.0 IP · 8 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases saved

About an average night — −0.5 bases vs average on 8 batters.

Slider4 thrown (11% tonight, season 31%)
+0.1 bases cost
Nate Pearson1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Sinker4 thrown (22% tonight, season 13%)
+0.1 bases cost
Curveball1 thrown (6% tonight, season 12%)
+0.1 bases cost
Cristian Javier1.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
0.5 bases cost

Struggled to find the zone (53% strikes).

Knuckle Curve1 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Nationalspitching
Foster Griffin7.0 IP · 25 BF · 9 K · 0 BB
5.0 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 5.3 bases better than average on 36 pitches. The Curveball got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.4 expected bases.

Four-Seamer8 thrown (8% tonight, season 17%) · 2 whiffs
−0.2 bases saved
Orlando Ribalta1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

About an average night — −1.1 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Four-Seamer5 thrown (24% tonight, season 28%)
−0.1 bases saved
Justin Lawrence1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases saved

About an average night — −0.3 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
Nationals
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Luis García Jr. hit it

Every ball Luis García Jr. hit this game, where it landed.

336'406'335'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

5 PA3 H1 BB0 HBP0 K105.8 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 7Deserved: 7.1
PA 1 vs Spencer Arrighetti: out — 0.6 deserved basesPA 2 vs Spencer Arrighetti: walkPA 3 vs Spencer Arrighetti: home run — 3.5 deserved basesPA 4 vs Alimber Santa: single — 1.1 deserved basesPA 5 vs Cristian Javier: single — 0.9 deserved bases
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball42%

0.9 deserved bases on contact

Breaking42%

4.6 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed16%

0.6 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Spencer Arrighetti
BB
Actual
5.0
Deserved
5.1
Alimber Santa
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.1
Cristian Javier
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.9
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Nationals Park.

Astros24 BIP · 0 BB/HBP
336'406'335'
Nationals30 BIP · 10 BB/HBP
336'406'335'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Nationals Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information