Jordan Wicks

2026

Cubs· LHP · throws L· 10.1 IP· 10.45 ERA· 1.94 WHIP· 50 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what

F29th percentile run prevention

StarterHittable Strike-Thrower

Pounds the zone, but too much of it gets hit hard.

Wicks is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.480 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 29th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (83rd percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (18th percentile).

Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 424 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
50 batters faced · data through 2026-07-29.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Jordan Wicks mixes his four-seam fastball (38%) and changeup (28%). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 1.0 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

+6 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 24 bases vs a replacement arm's 30 over the same batters faced

Results

All pitches

saved 0.7 per 1000.9 saved across 120

Four-Seam Fastball

38% −1 pts vs '25

93.1 mph · lg 93.5 −1.3 mph vs '25

15% whiffs · lg 18%

saved 1.0 per 1000.7 saved across 69

Changeup

28% +4 pts vs '25

83.0 mph · lg 85.1

—

saved 0.5 per 1000.2 saved across 51

Slider

20% +7 pts vs '25

86.2 mph · lg 85.9 −0.6 mph vs '25

—

Sinker

8% −2 pts vs '25

93.2 mph · lg 93.2 −0.2 mph vs '25

—

Curveball

4% +3 pts vs '25

80.2 mph · lg 80.0 +0.4 mph vs '25

—

Rarely used: sweeper (1%)

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 50% probable range. Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Gray tick (marked “lg”) = league median vs that side; the faint gray band behind it spans the middle half of the league (25th–75th percentile).
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

vs LHB17 PA0.416

Raw vs LHB rate (0.493) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB33 PA0.455

0.3850.4100.4350.4610.486

← better (fewer bases allowed)worse →

Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.028 to +0.047

About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the opposite field off him most often, but the hardest contact goes up the middle.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Jordan Wicks landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two; use the ▶ links below to watch on Baseball Savant.

hit · out

EBlowhigh

vs Esmerlyn ValdezHome run

EV 106 mph · LA 25° · EB 3.4

05/26 vs Pirates

vs Bryan ReynoldsDouble

EV 101 mph · LA 12° · EB 1.9

05/26 vs Pirates

vs Bryan ReynoldsDouble

EV 110 mph · LA 16° · EB 1.8

05/26 vs Pirates

vs Jake CronenworthSingle

EV 98 mph · LA 14° · EB 1.4

07/01 vs Padres

vs Samad TaylorTriple

EV 98 mph · LA 26° · EB 1.2

07/01 vs Padres

Luck check

Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs JJ WetherholtSingleCheap hit

EV 100 mph · LA -15° · EB 0.1 · xBA .113

05/31 vs Cardinals

Times through order

What happens the third time they see him

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Date	Opponent	Result	Bases allowed	Above replacement
May 31, 2026	Cardinals	10 BF · 1 K, 4 H	2.5	+2.6
Jul 1, 2026	Padres	13 BF · 2 K, 5 H	5.7	+0.9
May 26, 2026	Pirates	24 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 9 H, 1 HR, 1 HBP	13.9	+0.4
Jun 28, 2026	Brewers	3 BF · 0 K, 1 BB	1.2	+0.3