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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jordan Wicks

2026
Cubs· LHP · throws L· 10.1 IP· 10.45 ERA· 1.94 WHIP· 50 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Cbetter than 42% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterCommand Artist

Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.

Wicks has been below average at limiting damage

The simulator expects 0.458 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 42nd percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (83rd percentile). The soft spot is Strikeouts (25th percentile).

50 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Cionel PérezMetsTobias MyersMetsWalker BuehlerPadresZac ThorntonMets

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Jordan Wicks mixes his four-seam fastball (38%) and changeup (28%). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 1.0 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+3 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 24 bases vs a replacement arm's 27 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

0.9 bases saved vs league average, across 120 pitches — 0.7 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
38%
93.1 mph · LHP median 93.6
18% whiffs · Lg median 21%
saved 1.0 per 1000.7 total
Changeup
28%
83.0 mph · LHP median 85.1
—
saved 0.5 per 1000.2 total
Slider
not charted
20%
86.2 mph · LHP median 85.9
—
—
Sinker
not charted
8%
93.2 mph · LHP median 93.0
—
—
Curveball
not charted
4%
80.2 mph · LHP median 79.7
—
—

Only his four-seam fastball and changeup are in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Rarely used: sweeper (1%)

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his four-seam fastball and changeup are in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.047

vs LHB17 PA0.435

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.435 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.411 to 0.456, based on 17 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.493 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

vs RHB33 PA0.472

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.472 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.450 to 0.493, based on 33 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.451 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

0.4010.4270.4520.4780.503
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go up the middle off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Jordan Wicks landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Esmerlyn ValdezHome run
EV 106 mph · LA 25° · EB 3.4
05/26 vs Pirates
vs Bryan ReynoldsDouble
EV 101 mph · LA 12° · EB 1.9
05/26 vs Pirates
vs Bryan ReynoldsDouble
EV 110 mph · LA 16° · EB 1.8
05/26 vs Pirates
vs Jake CronenworthSingle
EV 98 mph · LA 14° · EB 1.4
07/01 vs Padres
vs Samad TaylorTriple
EV 98 mph · LA 26° · EB 1.2
07/01 vs Padres

Luck check

Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs JJ WetherholtSingleCheap hit
EV 100 mph · LA -15° · EB 0.1 · xBA .113
05/31 vs Cardinals
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Times through order

What happens the third time they see him

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Jordan Wicks

HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% down vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.