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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Kyle Nicolas

2026
Reds· RHP · throws R· 7.1 IP· 8.59 ERA· 2.86 WHIP· 42 batters faced

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Reliever

His grade is not ready yet

The simulator does not have enough data yet to grade how well he limits bases.

His grade rests on 42 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together. He has not reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Kyle Nicolas leans on his four-seam fastball (49% of pitches). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet, and the slider has come closest.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+5 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 17 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 22 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He cost 4.6 bases against league average across 162 pitches, or 2.8 per 100 pitches.

Four-Seam Fastball
49%
96.8 mph · RHP median 95.1
—
cost 4.6 per 1004.4 total
Slider
33%
90.0 mph · RHP median 86.9
—
cost 0.3 per 1000.2 total
Curveball
not charted
16%
83.9 mph · RHP median 81.2
—
—

His curveball isn't in the charts below, because only 32 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

He rarely throws his sinker (2% of his pitches).

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
55% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
45% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (RHP median). Medians come from the 384 right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Kyle Nicolas's pitch movement, 2026

Kyle Nicolas's pitch movement, 2026-60612061218in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 18.0 in
+2.3 vs Lg median
Break 8.9 in
+1.1 vs Lg median
SliderSL
Rise 3.1 in
+1.3 vs Lg median
Break −3.6 in
+0.1 vs Lg median
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. His curveball isn't in these charts, because only 32 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.041 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.049

vs LHB15 PA0.561

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.561 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.538 to 0.583, based on 15 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.569 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

vs RHB27 PA0.520

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.520 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.498 to 0.543, based on 27 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.569 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

0.4170.4630.5090.5550.601
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Kyle Nicolas this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Jorge SolerHome run
110 mph · 26° · worth 3.9 bases
04/10 vs Angels
vs Riley GreeneSingle
77 mph · 19° · worth 1.0 bases
04/24 vs Tigers
vs Kody ClemensSingle
77 mph · 16° · worth 1.0 bases
04/19 vs Twins
vs Nolan SchanuelSingle
101 mph · 13° · worth 0.9 bases
04/12 vs Angels
vs Zach NetoSingle
73 mph · 23° · worth 0.9 bases
04/10 vs Angels

Luck check

How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Kyle Nicolas

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is up and his K% is down.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.