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Reds at Rays · Apr 21, 2026

Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Reds 97% · tied 1% · Rays 2%

Reds earned it

Reds deserved to win and did, beating Rays 12-6.

  • This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
  • The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.