The simulator expects 0.489 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 23rd percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (98th percentile). The soft spot is Command (17th percentile).
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 424 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
93 batters faced · data through 2026-07-29.
Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Two skills separate pitching styles: finishing hitters without free passes (strikeout rate minus walk rate, right = better) and keeping the contact they do allow soft (hard-hit rate against, up = better).
Every dot is a qualified pitcher this season; dot size tracks batters faced. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
Dashed lines mark the league median on each skill.
Mick Abel
League
Percentile
Bases per ball in play(fewer = better)
.560
.529
23rd
Walk rate(fewer = better)
11%
9%
17th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)
25%
22%
69th
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
What he throws, and what it does
Mick Abel mixes his four-seam fastball (43%) and changeup (18%). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 3.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.
▲ +13 bases better than a replacement arm this season
allowed 43 bases vs a replacement arm's 55 over the same batters faced
Results
All pitches
cost 0.9 per 1002.0 cost across 216
replacement
Four-Seam Fastball
43%↑ +1 pts vs '25
94.8 mph · lg 95.1↓ −1.6 mph vs '25
26% whiffs · lg 18%
cost 2.9 per 1004.4 cost across 153
Changeup
18%↑ +9 pts vs '25
87.4 mph · lg 87.2↓ −1.7 mph vs '25
28% whiffs · lg 29%
saved 3.9 per 1002.4 saved across 63
Slider
13%↑ +2 pts vs '25
87.1 mph · lg 86.9↓ −0.2 mph vs '25
—
—
Curveball
12%↓ −9 pts vs '25
80.5 mph · lg 81.6↓ −2.2 mph vs '25
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—
Sweeper
11%↑ +8 pts vs '25
83.5 mph · lg 83.5↓ −1.0 mph vs '25
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Sinker
3%↓ −10 pts vs '25
93.7 mph · lg 94.8↓ −1.7 mph vs '25
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Mix by batter side
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.
Four-Seam Fastball
43% vs LHH
43% vs RHH
By appearance
How the stuff has held up outing to outing
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
How he fares against lefties and righties
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 50% probable range. Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Gray tick (marked “lg”) = league median vs that side; the faint gray band behind it spans the middle half of the league (25th–75th percentile).
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
vs LHB47 PA0.471
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.471 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.448 to 0.493, based on 47 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.470 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.422 EB/PA.
lg
vs RHB46 PA0.430
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.430 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.408 to 0.453, based on 46 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.497 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.406 EB/PA.
lg
0.3960.4230.4500.4770.504
← better (fewer bases allowed)worse →
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
Contact allowed
What hitters do when they connect
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes up the middle.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Where every ball hit off Mick Abel landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two; use the ▶ links below to watch on Baseball Savant.
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.
Earned off his contact allowed32
Actually credited to batters28
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Mick Abel.
over 57 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
ERA 3.98 · WHIP 1.57 · BABIP against 0.386 (lg 0.288)
Best games
His biggest outings this year
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
