Skip to main content
MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All pitchers·All hitters

Mick Abel

2026
Twins· RHP · throws R· 20.1 IP· 3.98 ERA· 1.57 WHIP· 93 batters faced

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Fbetter than 24% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
StarterPower Arm

Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.

Abel allows more bases than most pitchers

The simulator expects him to allow 0.469 bases per batter faced, better than 24% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting home runs (99th percentile).

His grade rests on 93 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together. He has not reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA.

Cole WilcoxMarinersJaden HillRockiesKendry RojasTwinsNate PearsonRoyals

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Pitcher type

He lands in the “Misses bats, but gets hit hard” corner of the map.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: strikeout rate minus walk rate, where higher is better, and hard-hit rate allowed, where lower is better. The hard-hit axis is flipped, so the best corner is the top right. Each dot is a pitcher with 80+ batters faced this season, sized by batters faced. The dashed lines are the league median on each skill, and the league best on each is named above the chart. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Mick AbelLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).560.527—
Walk rate(lower = better)10%9%30th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)23%22%59th

A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Mick Abel mixes his four-seam fastball (43%) and changeup (18%). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 3.9 bases per 100 thrown against league average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+13 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 42 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 55 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He cost 2.0 bases against league average across 216 pitches, or 0.9 per 100 pitches.

Four-Seam Fastball
43%
94.8 mph · RHP median 95.1
34% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 2.9 per 1004.4 total
Changeup
18%
87.4 mph · RHP median 87.1
31% whiffs · Lg median 30%
saved 3.9 per 1002.4 total
Slider
not charted
13%
87.1 mph · RHP median 86.9
—
—
Curveball
not charted
12%
80.5 mph · RHP median 81.2
—
—
Sweeper
not charted
11%
83.5 mph · RHP median 83.5
—
—
Sinker
not charted
3%
93.7 mph · RHP median 94.7
—
—

Only his four-seam fastball and changeup are in the charts below, because the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
43% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
43% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (RHP median). Medians come from the 384 right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. Only his four-seam fastball and changeup are in these charts, because the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.041 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050

vs LHB47 PA0.441

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.441 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.418 to 0.460, based on 47 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.470 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

vs RHB46 PA0.399

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.399 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.378 to 0.421, based on 46 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.497 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs RHB (0.497) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

0.3680.3940.4190.4450.470
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so even his weaker side is a strength.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Mick Abel this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Riley GreeneDouble
105 mph · 27° · worth 3.4 bases
04/09 vs Tigers
vs Spencer TorkelsonOutLucky out
103 mph · 28° · worth 3.2 bases
04/09 vs Tigers
vs Javier BáezDouble
102 mph · 24° · worth 2.2 bases
04/09 vs Tigers
vs Jonathan ArandaDouble
102 mph · 16° · worth 1.6 bases
04/04 vs Rays
vs Dylan BeaversDouble
78 mph · 15° · worth 1.6 bases
03/29 vs Orioles

Luck check

One out behind him came on a ball the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.

vs Spencer TorkelsonOutLucky out
103 mph · 28° · worth 3.2 bases
04/09 vs Tigers
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Deserved vs. actual

Batters have been credited with about the bases their contact off Mick Abel deserved.

Deserved by the contact he allowed32
Actually credited to batters28

Both bars count 57 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.

ERA 3.98 · WHIP 1.57 · BABIP against 0.386 (Lg median 0.286)

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Mick Abel

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is down, his BB% is up, his K% is up, his Barrel% against is down, his Hard-hit% against is down, his FB% against is down and his Pull% against is down.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.