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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Mick Abel

2026
Twins· RHP · throws R· 20.1 IP· 3.98 ERA· 1.57 WHIP· 93 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Fbetter than 26% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterMixed Profile

A blend of skills without one defining trait.

Abel is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.470 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 26th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (99th percentile).

93 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Geoff HartliebAthleticsJuan MejiaRockiesCole WilcoxMarinersVictor VodnikMarlins

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Pitcher type

Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.7%)Hard-hit% against Blake Snell (29.8%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: finishing hitters without free passes (strikeout rate minus walk rate) and keeping the contact they do allow soft (hard-hit rate against). Every dot is a qualified pitcher this season; dot size tracks batters faced. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Mick AbelLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).560.52726th
Walk rate(lower = better)10%9%31st
Strikeout rate(higher = better)23%22%59th

100th percentile = best in MLB.

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Mick Abel mixes his four-seam fastball (43%) and changeup (18%). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 3.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+8 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 42 bases vs a replacement arm's 50 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

2.0 bases cost vs league average, across 216 pitches — 0.9 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
43%
94.8 mph · RHP median 95.1
34% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 2.9 per 1004.4 total
Changeup
18%
87.4 mph · RHP median 87.1
31% whiffs · Lg median 30%
saved 3.9 per 1002.4 total
Slider
not charted
13%
87.1 mph · RHP median 86.9
—
—
Curveball
not charted
12%
80.5 mph · RHP median 81.2
—
—
Sweeper
not charted
11%
83.5 mph · RHP median 83.5
—
—
Sinker
not charted
3%
93.7 mph · RHP median 94.7
—
—

Only his four-seam fastball and changeup are in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
43% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
43% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — 371 of them. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his four-seam fastball and changeup are in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.051

vs LHB47 PA0.439

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.439 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.418 to 0.461, based on 47 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.470 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

vs RHB46 PA0.398

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.398 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.376 to 0.420, based on 46 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.497 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHB rate (0.497) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.3660.3920.4190.4450.471
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Mick Abel landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Riley GreeneDouble
EV 105 mph · LA 27° · EB 3.4
04/09 vs Tigers
vs Spencer TorkelsonOutRobbed
EV 103 mph · LA 28° · EB 3.2
04/09 vs Tigers
vs Javier BáezDouble
EV 102 mph · LA 24° · EB 2.2
04/09 vs Tigers
vs Jonathan ArandaDouble
EV 102 mph · LA 16° · EB 1.6
04/04 vs Rays
vs Dylan BeaversDouble
EV 78 mph · LA 15° · EB 1.6
03/29 vs Orioles

Luck check

Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.

vs Spencer TorkelsonOutRobbed
EV 103 mph · LA 28° · EB 3.2
04/09 vs Tigers

Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Adley RutschmanDoubleCheap hit
EV 103 mph · LA 21° · EB 0.4 · xBA .163
03/29 vs Orioles
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Earned vs. actual

Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Mick Abel.

Earned off his contact allowed32
Actually credited to batters28

over 57 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

ERA 3.98 · WHIP 1.57 · BABIP against 0.386 (Lg median 0.287)

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Mick Abel

HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% up, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, FB% against down, Pull% against down vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.