Cole Wilcox
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Wilcox is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.471 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 24th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (79th percentile). The soft spot is Command (5th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
123 batters faced · data through 2026-08-23.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Cole Wilcox.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Cole Wilcox | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .517 | .527 | 24th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 13% | 9% | 5th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 22% | 22% | 52nd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Cole Wilcox mixes his four-seam fastball (28%) and sweeper (27%). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 3.1 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 54 bases vs a replacement arm's 63 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
1.6 bases cost vs league average, across 484 pitches — 0.3 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his sweeper tilts 21 points more toward lefties.
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Cole Wilcox's pitch movement, 2026
His Sweeper has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 4 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.474 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.452 to 0.496, based on 68 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.453 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.459 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.435 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.412 to 0.456, based on 55 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.490 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.441 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 4 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Cole Wilcox.
over 75 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.00 · WHIP 1.63 · BABIP against 0.343 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs YankeesMar 31, 2026
8 BF · 3 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.0
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs PadresApr 16, 2026
7 BF · 3 K, 2 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 1.9
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs GuardiansMar 28, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs GiantsJul 17, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.4
- vs RedsJul 22, 2026
7 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.3
- Above replacement
- +1.3