Skip to main content
← All games

Mariners at Padres · Apr 16, 2026

Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Mariners 35% · tied 15% · Padres 50%

Padres edged it

The simulator saw a near coin flip, and Padres came out ahead of Mariners 5-2.

  • This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
  • The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.