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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Mitch Spence

2026
Royals· RHP · throws R· 9.1 IP· 21.21 ERA· 3.00 WHIP· 56 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Fbetter than 5% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterStill Searching

Below league average across the board.

Spence is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.494 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 5th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (7th percentile).

56 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Valente BellozoRockiesAaron BummerRoyalsScott BarlowAthleticsAndre GranilloNationals

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Mitch Spence mixes his cutter (38%) and slider (20%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the cutter has come closest.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

−4 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

allowed 34 bases vs a replacement arm's 30 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

2.0 bases cost vs league average, across 76 pitches — 2.6 per 100.

Cutter
38%
91.9 mph · RHP median 90.2
17% whiffs · Lg median 22%
cost 2.6 per 1002.0 total
Slider
not charted
20%
84.5 mph · RHP median 86.9
—
—
Sinker
not charted
17%
92.5 mph · RHP median 94.7
—
—
Curveball
not charted
17%
81.6 mph · RHP median 81.2
—
—
Changeup
not charted
9%
88.0 mph · RHP median 87.1
—
—

Only his cutter is in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his cutter is in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.043 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.035 to +0.052

vs LHB36 PA0.512

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.512 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.490 to 0.535, based on 36 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.748 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHB rate (0.748) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB20 PA0.469

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.469 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.445 to 0.491, based on 20 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.466 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

0.4260.4560.4860.5160.546
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Mitch Spence landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Cody BellingerHome run
EV 104 mph · LA 30° · EB 3.9
04/18 vs Yankees
vs Jacob GonzalezHome run
EV 94 mph · LA 35° · EB 3.1
06/26 vs White Sox
vs Miguel VargasHome run
EV 101 mph · LA 37° · EB 2.9
06/26 vs White Sox
vs Andrew BenintendiDouble
EV 98 mph · LA 17° · EB 2.0
06/26 vs White Sox
vs J.C. EscarraTriple
EV 85 mph · LA 27° · EB 1.5
04/18 vs Yankees

Luck check

Burned 3 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Sam AntonacciSingleCheap hit
EV 85 mph · LA -17° · EB 0.1 · xBA .065
06/26 vs White Sox
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Times through order

What happens the third time they see him

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Mitch Spence

HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.