Skip to main content
MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All pitchers·All hitters

Mitch Spence

2026
Royals· RHP · throws R· 9.1 IP· 21.21 ERA· 3.00 WHIP· 56 batters faced

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Fbetter than 5% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
StarterStill Searching

Below league average across the board.

Spence allows more bases than most pitchers

The simulator expects him to allow 0.491 bases per batter faced, better than 5% of qualified pitchers. His weakest skill is limiting home runs (6th percentile).

His grade rests on 56 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together. He has not reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA.

Brendan BeckYankeesLuis CurveloRangersMax KranickNationalsHurston WaldrepBraves

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Mitch Spence mixes his cutter (38%) and slider (20%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet, and the cutter has come closest.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

−1 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 34 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 33 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He cost 2.0 bases against league average across 76 pitches, or 2.6 per 100 pitches.

Cutter
38%
91.9 mph · RHP median 90.1
17% whiffs · Lg median 22%
cost 2.6 per 1002.0 total
Slider
not charted
20%
84.5 mph · RHP median 86.9
—
—
Sinker
not charted
17%
92.5 mph · RHP median 94.7
—
—
Curveball
not charted
17%
81.6 mph · RHP median 81.2
—
—
Changeup
not charted
9%
88.0 mph · RHP median 87.1
—
—

Only his cutter is in the charts below, because the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. Only his cutter is in these charts, because the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.042 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.051

vs LHB36 PA0.521

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.521 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.499 to 0.544, based on 36 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.748 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs LHB (0.748) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

vs RHB20 PA0.479

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.479 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.457 to 0.502, based on 20 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.466 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

0.4220.4560.4890.5230.557
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Mitch Spence this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Cody BellingerHome run
104 mph · 30° · worth 3.9 bases
04/18 vs Yankees
vs Jacob GonzalezHome run
94 mph · 35° · worth 3.1 bases
06/26 vs White Sox
vs Miguel VargasHome run
101 mph · 37° · worth 2.9 bases
06/26 vs White Sox
vs Andrew BenintendiDouble
98 mph · 17° · worth 2.0 bases
06/26 vs White Sox
vs J.C. EscarraTriple
85 mph · 27° · worth 1.5 bases
04/18 vs Yankees

Luck check

How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Times through the order

These charts show what happens as hitters see him a second and third time.

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Mitch Spence

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is up and his K% is down.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.