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One moment while the latest numbers come in.
Pounds the zone, but too much of it gets hit hard.
The simulator expects 0.575 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 1st percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (1st percentile).
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Mitch Spence mixes his cutter (38%) and slider (20%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the cutter has come closest.
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.
allowed 36 bases vs a replacement arm's 33 over the same batters faced
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.645 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.623 to 0.668, based on 36 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.748 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.422 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.748) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.603 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.581 to 0.626, based on 20 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.466 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.406 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Burned 3 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
xEB/PA up, HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.
