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Luis Curvelo

2026
Rangers· RHP · throws R· 10.1 IP· 9.58 ERA· 2.32 WHIP· 55 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Fbetter than 4% of pitchers at limiting bases
RelieverStill Searching

Below league average across the board.

Curvelo is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.495 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 4th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (4th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.

55 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Luis Curvelo mixes his slider (30%) and four-seam fastball (27%). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 1.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

−10 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

allowed 38 bases vs a replacement arm's 28 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

8.5 bases cost vs league average, across 105 pitches — 8.1 per 100.

Slider
30%
84.1 mph · RHP median 86.9
32% whiffs · Lg median 33%
cost 17.1 per 1009.4 total
Four-Seam Fastball
27%
95.8 mph · RHP median 95.1
saved 1.9 per 1000.9 total
Sinker
not charted
24%
94.5 mph · RHP median 94.7
Splitter
not charted
20%
83.3 mph · RHP median 86.9

His sinker and splitter aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Luis Curvelo's pitch movement, 2026

Luis Curvelo's pitch movement, 20260612061218in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
SliderSL
Rise 4.2 in
+2.3 vs Lg median
Break −1.2 in
+2.5 vs Lg median
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 14.5 in
−1.1 vs Lg median
Break 13.6 in
+5.9 vs Lg median
Early season → nowLg medianCurrent-dot uncertainty
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current shape — horizontal break (arm side vs. glove side) by induced vertical break (rise vs. drop). Both axes are in inches of break. The trail runs from this season's earliest tracked outings — the faint, thin end — up to today's solid dot; a trail with only a few segments just means fewer tracked outings. The soft halo around each dot is how far that dot could sit off on its own, just from ordinary outing-to-outing wobble. Don't read a long trail as proof on its own that a pitch changed. Every pitch in baseball loses a little break through midsummer and gets it back by September — the same shift two full seasons back agree on — and the trail shows that league-wide seasonal swing alongside whatever this pitcher did himself. The sentence at the top of this card has the league's share taken out, so it can read “has not moved” above a trail that looks long. That is the two marks measuring different things, not a mistake. A pitch counts as changed only once it sits at least two inches from its own early-season shape — a verdict about this pitcher against himself, never a comparison with anyone else. League median: the small hollow ring marks it, on the same two measurements. Where it sits far from a pitch's dot, a line joins the two — and on a wider screen the ring carries that pitch's code as well — so a distant ring is never orphaned; where it sits close, neither is drawn, because the pairing is already obvious. League median is missing entirely for a pitch marked *: too few pitchers throw it for one to be worth setting, so it is plotted without a reference ring. For the exact dates a pitch changed, see the by-appearance chart below.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His sinker and splitter aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.049

vs LHB24 PA0.519

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.519 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.497 to 0.543, based on 24 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.538 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

vs RHB30 PA0.477

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.477 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.455 to 0.500, based on 30 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.839 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHB rate (0.839) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.4250.4570.4900.5230.555
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Luis Curvelo landed this season.
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Luis Curvelo

HR allowed% up, K% down vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.