Luis Curvelo
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Curvelo is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.495 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 4th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (4th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
55 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.
How to read this chart
Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Arsenal
Luis Curvelo mixes his slider (30%) and four-seam fastball (27%). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 1.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 38 bases vs a replacement arm's 28 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
8.5 bases cost vs league average, across 105 pitches — 8.1 per 100.
His sinker and splitter aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.
How to read this chart
Luis Curvelo's pitch movement, 2026
How to read this chart
By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His sinker and splitter aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.519 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.497 to 0.543, based on 24 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.538 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.477 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.455 to 0.500, based on 30 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.839 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.839) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
How to read this chart
- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
How to read this chart
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs MarinersApr 8, 2026score only
6 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +2.9
- vs CardinalsJun 3, 2026score only
6 BF · 0 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.4
- Above replacement
- +0.7
- vs AthleticsApr 13, 2026score only
8 BF · 1 K, 2 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 4.8
- Above replacement
- -0.7
- vs GuardiansJun 6, 2026score only
2 BF · 0 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.9
- Above replacement
- -0.8
- vs GuardiansJun 7, 2026score only
4 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.9
- Above replacement
- -0.9
Trends
Multi-season trends · Luis Curvelo
HR allowed% up, K% down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.