Nick Mears

2026

Royals· RHP · throws R· 19.1 IP· 5.12 ERA· 1.50 WHIP· 83 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what

F18th percentile run prevention

RelieverMixed Profile

A blend of skills without one defining trait.

Mears is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.500 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 18th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Quiet Contact (2nd percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.

Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 424 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
83 batters faced · data through 2026-07-29.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Pitcher type

Two skills separate pitching styles: finishing hitters without free passes (strikeout rate minus walk rate, right = better) and keeping the contact they do allow soft (hard-hit rate against, up = better).
Every dot is a qualified pitcher this season; dot size tracks batters faced. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
Dashed lines mark the league median on each skill.

	Nick Mears	League	Percentile
Bases per ball in play(fewer = better)	.573	.529	18th
Walk rate(fewer = better)	13%	9%	10th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)	20%	22%	38th

100th percentile = best in MLB.

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Nick Mears mixes his four-seam fastball (37%) and slider (27%). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 1.7 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

−1 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

allowed 43 bases vs a replacement arm's 42 over the same batters faced

Results

All pitches

cost 2.2 per 1004.9 cost across 218

Four-Seam Fastball

37% −17 pts vs '25

94.8 mph · lg 95.1 −0.6 mph vs '25

9% whiffs · lg 18%

saved 1.7 per 1002.2 saved across 125

Slider

27% −15 pts vs '25

84.6 mph · lg 86.9 −2.0 mph vs '25

30% whiffs · lg 32%

cost 7.6 per 1007.1 cost across 93

Curveball

14% +9 pts vs '25

81.4 mph · lg 81.6 −1.3 mph vs '25

—

Sinker

12%

93.8 mph · lg 94.8

—

Changeup

11%

84.5 mph · lg 87.2

—

Mix by batter side

How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Four-Seam Fastball

40% vs LHH

33% vs RHH

Slider

18% vs LHH

39% vs RHH

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 50% probable range. Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Gray tick (marked “lg”) = league median vs that side; the faint gray band behind it spans the middle half of the league (25th–75th percentile).
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

vs LHB45 PA0.520

vs RHB38 PA0.479

Raw vs RHB rate (0.574) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.3900.4320.4730.5150.557

← better (fewer bases allowed)worse →

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.048

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Nick Mears landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two; use the ▶ links below to watch on Baseball Savant.

hit · out

EBlowhigh

vs Gage WorkmanHome run

EV 101 mph · LA 31° · EB 3.8

05/10 vs Tigers

vs Mitch GarverHome run

EV 104 mph · LA 32° · EB 3.7

05/22 vs Mariners

vs Riley GreeneDouble

EV 110 mph · LA 20° · EB 2.3

04/16 vs Tigers

vs Spencer TorkelsonDouble

EV 104 mph · LA 15° · EB 2.0

05/08 vs Tigers

vs Zach McKinstryDouble

EV 85 mph · LA 21° · EB 1.7

04/14 vs Tigers

Luck check

Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Kevin McGonigleTripleCheap hit

EV 99 mph · LA 25° · EB 0.2 · xBA .087

04/16 vs Tigers

Earned vs. actual

Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

Earned off his contact allowed32

Actually credited to batters31

Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Nick Mears.

over 56 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

ERA 5.12 · WHIP 1.50 · BABIP against 0.296 (lg 0.288)

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Date	Opponent	Result	Bases allowed	Above replacement
Apr 4, 2026	Brewers	3 BF · 0 K	0.2	+1.3
May 19, 2026	Red Sox	7 BF · 2 K, 2 H	2.3	+1.3
Apr 5, 2026	Brewers	5 BF · 0 K, 1 BB, 1 H	1.5	+1.1
May 5, 2026	Guardians	3 BF · 1 K	0.5	+1.0
Apr 7, 2026	Guardians	4 BF · 2 K, 1 BB	1.1	+0.9