Nick Mears
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Mears is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.474 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 22nd percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Quiet Contact (13th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
83 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.7%)Hard-hit% against Blake Snell (29.8%)
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| Nick Mears | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .573 | .527 | 22nd |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 12% | 9% | 20th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 20% | 22% | 42nd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Nick Mears mixes his four-seam fastball (37%) and slider (27%). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 1.7 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 42 bases vs a replacement arm's 43 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
4.9 bases cost vs league average, across 218 pitches — 2.2 per 100.
Only his four-seam fastball and slider are in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
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Mix by batter side
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Nick Mears's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his four-seam fastball and slider are in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.500 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.479 to 0.523, based on 45 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.473 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.459 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.438 to 0.481, based on 38 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.574 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.574) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Nick Mears.
over 56 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.12 · WHIP 1.50 · BABIP against 0.296 (Lg median 0.287)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs Red SoxMay 19, 2026score only
7 BF · 2 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.3
- Above replacement
- +1.4
- vs BrewersApr 4, 2026score only
3 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.3
- vs BrewersApr 5, 2026score only
5 BF · 0 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.5
- Above replacement
- +1.1
- vs GuardiansMay 5, 2026score only
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +1.1
- vs GuardiansApr 7, 2026score only
4 BF · 2 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +0.9
Trends
Multi-season trends · Nick Mears
HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against up, Hard-hit% against up, GB% against up, FB% against down, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.