Gus Varland
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Varland is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.492 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 5th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Quiet Contact (1st percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
151 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
How to read this chart
Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Gus Varland.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
How to read this chart
| Gus Varland | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .739 | .528 | 5th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 35th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 21% | 22% | 33rd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Gus Varland leans on his four-seam fastball (58% of pitches). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the four-seam fastball has come closest.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 93 bases vs a replacement arm's 78 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
20.4 bases cost vs league average, across 552 pitches — 3.7 per 100.
Rarely used: changeup (2%)
How to read this chart
Mix by batter side
How to read this chart
Gus Varland's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
How to read this chart
By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.046
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.523 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.503 to 0.546, based on 72 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.544 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.485 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.464 to 0.507, based on 79 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.677 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.677) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
How to read this chart
- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 5 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
How to read this chart
Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Gus Varland.
over 105 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
How to read this chart
ERA 6.82 · WHIP 1.83 · BABIP against 0.367 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs TwinsMay 7, 2026
5 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +2.4
- vs CubsMar 29, 2026
4 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs RoyalsJun 15, 2026
4 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.8
- vs D-backsJun 7, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.4
- vs BrewersApr 12, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.3
Trends
Multi-season trends · Gus Varland
xEB/PA up, HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against up, Hard-hit% against up, GB% against down, FB% against up, Pull% against up vs his previous season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.