The simulator expects 0.494 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 5th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (1st percentile).
48 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.
▸How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Only his cutter is in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
▸How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.
Valente Bellozo's pitch movement, 2025
Pitch
Risein · vs Lg median
Breakin · vs Lg median
Vs. early season
CutterFC
Rise 8.9 in
+0.9 vs Lg median
Break −3.7 in
−1.8 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 16.3 in
+0.4 vs Lg median
Break 3.3 in
−4.4 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
SweeperST
Rise 4.2 in
+3.4 vs Lg median
Break −13.9 in
−0.1 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
ChangeupCH
Rise 4.1 in
−0.5 vs Lg median
Break 15.5 in
+0.9 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
CurveballCU
Rise −10.0 in
+0.3 vs Lg median
Break −14.1 in
−5.4 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
Early season → nowLg medianCurrent-dot uncertainty
▸How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current shape — horizontal break (arm side vs. glove side) by induced vertical break (rise vs. drop). Both axes are in inches of break. The trail runs from this season's earliest tracked outings — the faint, thin end — up to today's solid dot; a trail with only a few segments just means fewer tracked outings. The soft halo around each dot is how far that dot could sit off on its own, just from ordinary outing-to-outing wobble. Don't read a long trail as proof on its own that a pitch changed. Every pitch in baseball loses a little break through midsummer and gets it back by September — the same shift two full seasons back agree on — and the trail shows that league-wide seasonal swing alongside whatever this pitcher did himself. The sentence at the top of this card has the league's share taken out, so it can read “has not moved” above a trail that looks long. That is the two marks measuring different things, not a mistake. A pitch counts as changed only once it sits at least two inches from its own early-season shape — a verdict about this pitcher against himself, never a comparison with anyone else. League median: the small hollow ring marks it, on the same two measurements. Where it sits far from a pitch's dot, a line joins the two — and on a wider screen the ring carries that pitch's code as well — so a distant ring is never orphaned; where it sits close, neither is drawn, because the pairing is already obvious. League median is missing entirely for a pitch marked *: too few pitchers throw it for one to be worth setting, so it is plotted without a reference ring. For the exact dates a pitch changed, see the by-appearance chart below.
By appearance
How the stuff has held up outing to outing
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his cutter is in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
Platoon splits
How he fares against lefties and righties
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050
vs LHB16 PA0.513
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.513 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.491 to 0.536, based on 16 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.731 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.
Lg median
Raw vs LHB rate (0.731) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB32 PA0.472
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.472 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.449 to 0.493, based on 32 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.703 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.
Lg median
Raw vs RHB rate (0.703) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
0.4260.4560.4870.5170.547
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
▸How to read this chart
Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
“Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
What hitters do when they connect
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Where every ball hit off Valente Bellozo landed this season.
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.
Times through order
What happens the third time they see him
Best games
His biggest outings this year
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.