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Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
The simulator expects 0.440 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 64th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (94th percentile). The soft spot is Command (19th percentile).
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Bases per batter faced
| Andrew Alvarez | League | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(fewer = better) | .509 | .536 | 64th |
| Walk rate(fewer = better) | 11% | 9% | 19th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 25% | 23% | 72nd |
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 6 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
* Approximate: sacrifice flies and bunts aren't distinguishable in our data, so every ball in play counts as an at-bat. Slightly off official figures.
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
| Date | Opponent | EB | Above replacement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 2026 | Astros | 3.5 | +5.8 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Rays | 4.5 | +4.6 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Red Sox | 3.3 | +4.3 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Royals | 5.9 | +3.3 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Giants | 6.2 | +2.9 |
Expected bases allowed per plate appearance — lower = stronger run prevention
Home runs allowed per plate appearance — lower = better
Walks per plate appearance — lower = better command
Strikeouts per plate appearance — higher = more swing-and-miss
