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Andrew Alvarez

2026
Nationals· LHP · throws L· 112.2 IP· 3.43 ERA· 1.30 WHIP· 473 batters faced
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Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Bbetter than 68% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
StarterPower Arm

Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.

Alvarez sits right around league average

The simulator expects him to allow 0.444 bases per batter faced, better than 68% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting home runs (91st percentile). His weakest skill is limiting walks (22nd percentile).

His grade rests on 473 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Andrew Alvarez.

Sean NewcombWhite SoxBryce MillerMarinersDrew AndersonTigersTommy NanceTwins

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Pitcher type

He lands in the “Misses bats, but gets hit hard” corner of the map.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: strikeout rate minus walk rate, where higher is better, and hard-hit rate allowed, where lower is better. The hard-hit axis is flipped, so the best corner is the top right. Each dot is a pitcher with 80+ batters faced this season, sized by batters faced. The dashed lines are the league median on each skill, and the league best on each is named above the chart. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Andrew AlvarezLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).498.527—
Walk rate(lower = better)11%9%22nd
Strikeout rate(higher = better)24%22%69th

A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Andrew Alvarez mixes his curveball (32%) and four-seam fastball (28%). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 2.0 bases per 100 thrown against league average, and his curveball runs 3.0 mph faster than the median left-handed pitcher's.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+75 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 202 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 277 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He saved 9.3 bases against league average across 1,857 pitches, or 0.5 per 100 pitches.

Curveball
32%
82.9 mph · LHP median 79.9
34% whiffs · Lg median 29%
saved 2.0 per 10011.7 total
Four-Seam Fastball
28%
92.2 mph · LHP median 93.5
13% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 0.7 per 1003.5 total
Slider
20%
84.2 mph · LHP median 85.6
36% whiffs · Lg median 33%
cost 0.8 per 1002.8 total
Sinker
14%
91.7 mph · LHP median 92.9
17% whiffs · Lg median 13%
saved 0.8 per 1002.1 total
Changeup
5%
86.4 mph · LHP median 85.1
37% whiffs · Lg median 30%
saved 1.8 per 1001.8 total
How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Curveball
22% vs LHH · LHP median 12%
36% vs RHH · LHP median 17%
Four-Seam Fastball
17% vs LHH · LHP median 34%
32% vs RHH · LHP median 41%
Slider
33% vs LHH · LHP median 33%
16% vs RHH · LHP median 18%
Sinker
28% vs LHH · LHP median 38%
9% vs RHH · LHP median 22%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (LHP median). Medians come from left-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. Between 42 and 149 of them qualify, depending on the pitch. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Andrew Alvarez's pitch movement, 2026

His Sinker has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape, but his other 4 have not.

The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.

Andrew Alvarez's pitch movement, 2026-12012-12012in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
CurveballCU
Rise −11.5 in
−1.1 vs Lg median
Break −11.6 in
−3.0 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 13.9 in
−1.8 vs Lg median
Break 3.4 in
−4.3 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
SliderSL
Rise −1.1 in
−2.9 vs Lg median
Break −1.2 in
+2.5 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
SinkerSI
Rise 3.9 in
−4.4 vs Lg median
Break 14.9 in
−0.3 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
ChangeupCH
Rise 3.9 in
−0.2 vs Lg median
Break 15.5 in
+1.3 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The “changed” verdict removes a league-wide drift that the trail still shows, so a long trail can read as steady. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles lefty bats better than righty bats, by 0.037 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.046

vs LHB126 PA0.398

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.398 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.379 to 0.415, based on 126 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.433 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

vs RHB349 PA0.435

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.435 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.418 to 0.451, based on 349 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.432 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

0.3710.3930.4150.4380.460
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a lefty arm (median 0.038).

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but they do the most damage to the opposite field.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Andrew Alvarez this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Hunter GoodmanHome run
110 mph · 31° · worth 3.9 bases
08/25 vs Rockies
vs Esteury RuizHome run
108 mph · 27° · worth 3.9 bases
06/03 vs Marlins
vs Francisco LindorHome run
110 mph · 26° · worth 3.9 bases
08/14 vs Mets
vs Juan SotoHome run
109 mph · 35° · worth 3.9 bases
05/20 vs Mets
vs Bo BichetteHome run
108 mph · 25° · worth 3.6 bases
09/25 vs Mets

Luck check

4 outs behind him came on balls the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.

vs Juan SotoOutLucky out
99 mph · 27° · worth 2.3 bases
09/25 vs Mets
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Deserved vs. actual

Batters have been credited with about 7 fewer bases than their contact off Andrew Alvarez deserved, so his results have been lucky so far.

Deserved by the contact he allowed151
Actually credited to batters144

Both bars count 304 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.

ERA 3.43 · WHIP 1.30 · BABIP against 0.296 (Lg median 0.286)

Times through the order

These charts show what happens as hitters see him a second and third time.

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Andrew Alvarez

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up, his K% is up, his Barrel% against is up and his GB% against is down.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.