Andrew Alvarez
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Alvarez sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.444 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 65th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (95th percentile). The soft spot is Quiet Contact (24th percentile).
339 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Andrew Alvarez.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Andrew Alvarez | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .468 | .528 | 65th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 11% | 9% | 27th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 22% | 22% | 42nd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Andrew Alvarez mixes his curveball (31%) and four-seam fastball (28%). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 4.3 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his curveball runs 2.9 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 141 bases vs a replacement arm's 189 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
9.5 bases saved vs league average, across 1,311 pitches — 0.7 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Andrew Alvarez's pitch movement, 2026
His Slider and Sinker have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.430 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.411 to 0.450, based on 98 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.391 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.391) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.468 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.451 to 0.488, based on 243 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.437 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 5 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Andrew Alvarez.
over 225 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.60 · WHIP 1.34 · BABIP against 0.303 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs RedsAug 8, 2026
20 BF · 2 K, 1 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.6
- Above replacement
- +6.5
- vs AstrosJul 7, 2026
27 BF · 3 K, 5 BB, 4 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 9.2
- Above replacement
- +5.9
- vs RoyalsJun 15, 2026
18 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.1
- Above replacement
- +3.9
- vs Red SoxJul 1, 2026
17 BF · 6 K, 1 BB, 2 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 5.6
- Above replacement
- +3.8
- vs RaysJun 21, 2026
16 BF · 6 K, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 5.1
- Above replacement
- +3.8
Trends
Multi-season trends · Andrew Alvarez
HR allowed% up, Barrel% against up, Hard-hit% against up, GB% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.