Skip to main content
MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All pitchers·All hitters

Jason Alexander

2026
Astros· RHP · throws R· 18.1 IP· 9.33 ERA· 1.58 WHIP· 84 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Fbetter than 26% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterCommand Artist

Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.

Alexander is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.470 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 26th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (8th percentile).

84 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Antwone KellyPiratesJoel PegueroGiantsRyan BoruckiGiantsTyler SchweitzerWhite Sox

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Pitcher type

Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.7%)Hard-hit% against Blake Snell (29.8%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: finishing hitters without free passes (strikeout rate minus walk rate) and keeping the contact they do allow soft (hard-hit rate against). Every dot is a qualified pitcher this season; dot size tracks batters faced. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Jason AlexanderLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).535.52726th
Walk rate(lower = better)10%9%47th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)20%22%14th

100th percentile = best in MLB.

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Jason Alexander mixes his changeup (35%) and sinker (23%). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 0.8 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+5 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 40 bases vs a replacement arm's 45 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

4.6 bases cost vs league average, across 244 pitches — 1.9 per 100.

Changeup
35%
80.4 mph · RHP median 87.1
29% whiffs · Lg median 30%
saved 0.8 per 1000.9 total
Sinker
23%
91.0 mph · RHP median 94.7
—
cost 1.2 per 1000.9 total
Four-Seam Fastball
23%
91.5 mph · RHP median 95.1
11% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 6.6 per 1004.6 total
Cutter
not charted
7%
85.4 mph · RHP median 90.2
—
—
Sweeper
not charted
6%
78.6 mph · RHP median 83.5
—
—
Slider
not charted
5%
81.8 mph · RHP median 86.9
—
—

His cutter, sweeper, and slider aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Sinker
13% vs LHH · RHP median 16%
42% vs RHH · RHP median 34%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — 204 of them. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His cutter, sweeper, and slider aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.043 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.035 to +0.052

vs LHB51 PA0.480

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.480 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.459 to 0.502, based on 51 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.523 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHB rate (0.523) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB33 PA0.437

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.437 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.416 to 0.459, based on 33 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.437 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

0.4050.4320.4590.4850.512
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Jason Alexander landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Joc PedersonHome run
EV 102 mph · LA 33° · EB 3.6
05/26 vs Rangers
vs Andy PagesHome run
EV 110 mph · LA 21° · EB 3.1
05/06 vs Dodgers
vs Brooks LeeTriple
EV 100 mph · LA 37° · EB 2.9
05/19 vs Twins
vs Freddie FreemanDouble
EV 88 mph · LA 20° · EB 1.6
05/06 vs Dodgers
vs Evan CarterHome run
EV 101 mph · LA 39° · EB 1.5
05/26 vs Rangers

Luck check

Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Jeremiah JacksonHome runCheap hit
EV 99 mph · LA 29° · EB 0.5 · xBA .154
04/30 vs Orioles
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Earned vs. actual

Batters have been credited about 10 more bases than their contact off Jason Alexander earned — his results have run unlucky so far.

Earned off his contact allowed32
Actually credited to batters42

over 60 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

ERA 9.33 · WHIP 1.58 · BABIP against 0.304 (Lg median 0.287)

Times through order

What happens the third time they see him

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Jason Alexander

BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against up, Hard-hit% against down, Pull% against up vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.