Cole Henry

2026

Nationals· RHP · throws R· 13.2 IP· 7.90 ERA· 1.76 WHIP· 70 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what

F4th percentile run prevention

RelieverStill Searching

Below league average across the board.

Henry is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.552 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 4th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (1st percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.

Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 424 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
70 batters faced · data through 2026-07-29.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Pierce JohnsonReds

Andrew HoffmannD-backs

Brandan BidoisPirates

Phil MatonCubs

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Cole Henry leans on his four-seam fastball (48% of pitches). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the sweeper has come closest.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

−2 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

allowed 37 bases vs a replacement arm's 35 over the same batters faced

Results

All pitches

cost 2.9 per 1006.8 cost across 234

Four-Seam Fastball

48% −3 pts vs '25

93.8 mph · lg 95.1 −0.6 mph vs '25

20% whiffs · lg 18%

cost 4.4 per 1006.0 cost across 136

Sweeper

35% +2 pts vs '25

82.2 mph · lg 83.5 +1.4 mph vs '25

29% whiffs · lg 28%

cost 0.8 per 1000.8 cost across 98

Sinker

10%

94.2 mph · lg 94.8 −0.3 mph vs '25

—

Cutter

7% +4 pts vs '25

90.7 mph · lg 90.1 +3.0 mph vs '25

—

Rarely used: curveball (0%)

Mix by batter side

How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Four-Seam Fastball

54% vs LHH

43% vs RHH

Sweeper

32% vs LHH

36% vs RHH

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 50% probable range. Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Gray tick (marked “lg”) = league median vs that side; the faint gray band behind it spans the middle half of the league (25th–75th percentile).
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

vs LHB31 PA0.562

Raw vs LHB rate (0.740) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB40 PA0.521

0.3850.4400.4950.5500.605

← better (fewer bases allowed)worse →

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.035 to +0.050

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Cole Henry landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two; use the ▶ links below to watch on Baseball Savant.

hit · out

EBlowhigh

vs Kyle StowersHome run

EV 107 mph · LA 27° · EB 3.9

06/01 vs Marlins

vs Gary SánchezHome run

EV 107 mph · LA 36° · EB 3.5

04/12 vs Brewers

vs Liam HicksHome run

EV 101 mph · LA 33° · EB 3.3

06/01 vs Marlins

vs Braden ShewmakeDouble

EV 108 mph · LA 21° · EB 3.1

07/06 vs Astros

vs Brice MatthewsHome run

EV 101 mph · LA 23° · EB 2.5

07/06 vs Astros

Luck check

Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Tommy TroySingleCheap hit

EV 45 mph · LA -12° · EB 0.2 · xBA .166

06/05 vs D-backs

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Date	Opponent	Result	Bases allowed	Above replacement
Jun 5, 2026	D-backs	10 BF · 1 K, 2 H, 1 HBP	3.0	+2.0
Apr 4, 2026	Dodgers	7 BF · 2 K, 1 H	1.6	+2.0
Apr 8, 2026	Cardinals	7 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 1 HBP	2.0	+1.5
Mar 28, 2026	Cubs	3 BF · 1 K	0.1	+1.4
Mar 30, 2026	Phillies	5 BF · 1 K, 1 BB, 1 H	1.6	+0.9

Trends

Whether he's trending up or down

Multi-season trends · Cole Henry

xEB/PA up, HR allowed% up, BB% down vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.

Loading…

One moment while the latest numbers come in.