Matt Gage
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Gage is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.487 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 8th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (83rd percentile). The soft spot is Command (11th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
126 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Matt Gage.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Matt Gage | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .593 | .528 | 8th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 12% | 9% | 11th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 20% | 22% | 25th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Matt Gage mixes his slider (45%) and four-seam fastball (33%). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 2.1 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 67 bases vs a replacement arm's 65 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
8.2 bases cost vs league average, across 485 pitches — 1.7 per 100.
His sinker isn't in the charts below — only 41 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
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Mix by batter side
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Matt Gage's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His sinker isn't in these charts — only 41 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.463 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.440 to 0.485, based on 54 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.503 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.501 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.479 to 0.523, based on 73 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.573 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.573) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 3 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Matt Gage.
over 86 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.60 · WHIP 1.65 · BABIP against 0.275 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs White SoxMay 23, 2026
5 BF · 4 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +2.3
- vs DodgersMay 11, 2026
5 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs NationalsApr 18, 2026
3 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.4
- vs AthleticsMay 16, 2026
3 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.3
- vs D-backsMay 27, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.2
Trends
Multi-season trends · Matt Gage
HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against up, GB% against down, FB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.