Eli Morgan
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Morgan is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.485 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 9th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (5th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
91 batters faced · data through 2026-08-24.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Eli Morgan | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .647 | .528 | 9th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 41st |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 20% | 22% | 33rd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Eli Morgan mixes his four-seam fastball (37%) and changeup (33%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the changeup has come closest.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 50 bases vs a replacement arm's 47 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
10.5 bases cost vs league average, across 339 pitches — 3.1 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his slider tilts 16 points more toward righties.
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Eli Morgan's pitch movement, 2026
His Slider has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 2 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.508 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.487 to 0.530, based on 47 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.698 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.453 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.698) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.467 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.446 to 0.490, based on 44 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.430 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.439 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Eli Morgan.
over 63 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.12 · WHIP 1.71 · BABIP against 0.328 (Lg median 0.287)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs BrewersApr 4, 2026
12 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.0
- Above replacement
- +3.2
- vs White SoxApr 9, 2026
8 BF · 1 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.6
- Above replacement
- +2.5
- vs RangersMay 29, 2026
6 BF · 2 K, 2 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 1.4
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs MarinersMay 22, 2026
3 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +1.2
- vs AstrosJun 12, 2026
3 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +0.9
Trends
Multi-season trends · Eli Morgan
HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.