Phil Maton
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Maton is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.494 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 5th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Command (25th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
136 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Phil Maton.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Phil Maton | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .678 | .528 | 5th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 11% | 9% | 25th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 22% | 22% | 64th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Phil Maton mixes his cutter (37%) and curveball (29%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the cutter has come closest.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 72 bases vs a replacement arm's 70 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
16.3 bases cost vs league average, across 546 pitches — 3.0 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his sinker tilts 23 points more toward lefties.
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Phil Maton's pitch movement, 2026
His Sinker and Sweeper have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.516 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.494 to 0.537, based on 59 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.738 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.738) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.474 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.452 to 0.495, based on 77 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.447 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Phil Maton.
over 84 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 6.18 · WHIP 1.81 · BABIP against 0.367 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs RangersMay 10, 2026
4 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs PadresApr 27, 2026
6 BF · 2 K, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.5
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs D-backsMay 1, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs AstrosMay 24, 2026
3 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs CardinalsMay 31, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.4
Trends
Multi-season trends · Phil Maton
xEB/PA up, HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against up, Hard-hit% against up, FB% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.