Lance McCullers Jr.
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
McCullers is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.482 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 14th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Command (4th percentile).
195 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Lance McCullers Jr..
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Lance McCullers Jr. | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .650 | .528 | 14th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 13% | 9% | 4th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 24% | 22% | 67th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Lance McCullers Jr. mixes his cutter (28%) and sinker (22%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the cutter has come closest.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 102 bases vs a replacement arm's 108 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
13.2 bases cost vs league average, across 763 pitches — 1.7 per 100.
His four-seam fastball isn't in the charts below — only 30 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his cutter tilts 26 points more toward lefties.
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Lance McCullers Jr.'s pitch movement, 2026
His Sinker and Sweeper have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His four-seam fastball isn't in these charts — only 30 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.510 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.490 to 0.531, based on 119 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.565 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.565) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.470 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.449 to 0.490, based on 77 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.500 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 3 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 4 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Lance McCullers Jr..
over 118 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 6.55 · WHIP 1.55 · BABIP against 0.306 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs OriolesApr 30, 2026
24 BF · 9 K, 4 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 8.9
- Above replacement
- +4.5
- vs Red SoxMar 30, 2026
24 BF · 9 K, 1 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 11.0
- Above replacement
- +2.3
- vs MetsJul 20, 2026
12 BF · 4 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.8
- Above replacement
- +1.4
- vs AthleticsApr 5, 2026
18 BF · 4 K, 3 BB, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 8.7
- Above replacement
- +1.3
- vs RockiesJul 25, 2026
11 BF · 1 K, 4 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 5.3
- Above replacement
- +0.4
Trends
Multi-season trends · Lance McCullers Jr.
K% up, Barrel% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.