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Apr 30, 2026
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Astros 73% · tied 10% · Orioles 17%

Astros earned it

Astros deserved to win and did, beating Orioles 11–5.

  • This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
  • Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.