Burch Smith
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Smith sits right around league average
The simulator expects him to allow 0.444 bases per batter faced, better than 67% of qualified pitchers. His weakest skill is limiting hard contact (21st percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.
His grade rests on 73 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.
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Plays like…
Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA.
Pitcher type
Arsenal
Burch Smith mixes his four-seam fastball (44%) and curveball (25%). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 5.2 bases per 100 thrown against league average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
He allowed about 28 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 38 over the same batters faced.
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
He saved 5.4 bases against league average across 258 pitches, or 2.1 per 100 pitches.
His changeup isn't in the charts below, because only 27 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
He rarely throws his sinker (1% of his pitches).
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his curveball tilts 20 points more toward righties.
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Burch Smith's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. His changeup isn't in these charts, because only 27 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.042 EB/PA allowed.
50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.431 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.408 to 0.452, based on 37 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.446 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.389 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.366 to 0.412, based on 36 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.313 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
His raw rate vs RHB (0.313) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.
His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so even his weaker side is a strength.
How to read this chart
- Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
- The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
- The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
- The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
- Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but they do the most damage to the pull side.
Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
2 hits off him had less than a 20% chance of being hits.
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Best games
Best games
These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.
- vs Red SoxMay 5, 2026score only
7 BF · 4 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +3.0
- vs RedsApr 25, 2026score only
8 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.6
- Above replacement
- +2.5
- vs Blue JaysMay 15, 2026score only
5 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs Blue JaysMay 17, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.0
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs BravesApr 28, 2026score only
8 BF · 4 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.1
- Above replacement
- +1.1
Trends
Multi-season trends · Burch Smith
Compared with his previous season, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is up and his K% is up.
Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.