Burch Smith

2026

Tigers· RHP · throws R· 17.0 IP· 3.18 ERA· 1.47 WHIP· 73 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what

B+73rd percentile run prevention

RelieverMixed Profile

A blend of skills without one defining trait.

Smith is comfortably above average at preventing runs

The simulator expects 0.424 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 73rd percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Quiet Contact (5th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.

Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 424 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
73 batters faced · data through 2026-07-29.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Hunter BiggeRays

Clay HolmesMets

Mason MontgomeryPirates

Chase DollanderRockies

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Burch Smith mixes his four-seam fastball (44%) and curveball (25%). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 5.2 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

+9 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 28 bases vs a replacement arm's 37 over the same batters faced

Results

All pitches

saved 2.1 per 1005.4 saved across 258

Four-Seam Fastball

44%

93.8 mph · lg 95.1

20% whiffs · lg 18%

saved 1.8 per 1002.3 saved across 125

Curveball

25%

82.2 mph · lg 81.6

24% whiffs · lg 27%

saved 5.2 per 1003.8 saved across 73

Cutter

21%

87.7 mph · lg 90.1

—

cost 1.2 per 1000.7 cost across 60

Changeup

84.3 mph · lg 87.2

—

Rarely used: sinker (1%)

Mix by batter side

How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Four-Seam Fastball

46% vs LHH

41% vs RHH

Curveball

20% vs LHH

32% vs RHH

Cutter

18% vs LHH

25% vs RHH

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 50% probable range. Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Gray tick (marked “lg”) = league median vs that side; the faint gray band behind it spans the middle half of the league (25th–75th percentile).
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

vs LHB37 PA0.370

Raw vs LHB rate (0.446) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB36 PA0.329

0.2920.3280.3640.4000.436

← better (fewer bases allowed)worse →

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.049

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Burch Smith landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two; use the ▶ links below to watch on Baseball Savant.

hit · out

EBlowhigh

vs Patrick BaileyHome run

EV 104 mph · LA 27° · EB 3.3

05/21 vs Guardians

vs Corey SeagerDouble

EV 106 mph · LA 25° · EB 2.1

05/01 vs Rangers

vs Jake BurgerDouble

EV 108 mph · LA 10° · EB 1.3

05/01 vs Rangers

vs Maikel GarciaDouble

EV 107 mph · LA 8° · EB 1.2

05/09 vs Royals

vs Mauricio DubónDouble

EV 96 mph · LA 7° · EB 1.1

04/28 vs Braves

Luck check

Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Jesús SánchezSingleCheap hit

EV 99 mph · LA -24° · EB 0.1 · xBA .107

05/15 vs Blue Jays

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Date	Opponent	Result	Bases allowed	Above replacement
May 5, 2026	Red Sox	7 BF · 4 K, 1 H	0.7	+2.9
Apr 25, 2026	Reds	8 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 1 H	1.6	+2.4
May 15, 2026	Blue Jays	5 BF · 1 K, 1 H	0.7	+1.8
May 17, 2026	Blue Jays	5 BF · 1 K, 1 H	1.0	+1.6
Apr 28, 2026	Braves	8 BF · 4 K, 1 BB, 2 H	3.1	+1.0