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Matt Wallner

2026
Twins· RF · bats L · throws R· 135 plate appearances
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Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
A+better than 90% of hitters at creating bases

He's running below his established level this season, so he has room to rebound.

Three-Outcome Slugger

Elite power and walks; lives with the strikeouts.

One of the league's most dangerous bats

Matt Wallner creates bases at an elite clip. He creates more per plate appearance than 90% of qualified hitters. The strikeouts pile up, though. Only 1% of qualified hitters strike out more often.

135 plate appearances · data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. EB/PA is estimated bases, HR% home runs, BB% walks and K% strikeouts, each per plate appearance, and Hard-hit% is balls hit 95 mph or harder. Percentiles compare him with 534 qualified hitters, the ones with 50 or more plate appearances.

Plays like…

Each of these hitters shares his archetype and sits closest to him in EB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Matt Wallner.

Colson MontgomeryWhite SoxSpencer TorkelsonTigersZach NetoAngelsJonathan ArandaRays

Hitter type

See what kind of hitter he is, next to the rest of the league.

Hitter type

He gives away far more at-bats than most.

League best:BB% − K% Josue De Paula (14.3%)Hard-hit% Yohandy Morales (62.5%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate hitting styles: not giving away at-bats (walk rate minus strikeout rate) and squaring the ball up (hard-hit rate). Up and to the right is better on both. Every dot is a hitter with at least 40 plate appearances this season, and dot size tracks plate appearances. Click any dot to open that hitter's page.
 Matt WallnerLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(higher = better).526.511—
Walk rate(higher = better)7%8%45th
Strikeout rate(lower = better)39%23%1st

A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.

Platoon splits

See how he hits left-handed and right-handed pitchers.

Platoon splits (EB/PA)

He hits righties better than lefties, by 0.072 EB/PA.

50% probable range: +0.048 to +0.095

vs LHP47 PA0.446

vs LHP: shrunk estimate 0.446 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.417 to 0.473, based on 47 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.388 EB/PA. League median vs LHP: 0.424 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs LHP (0.388) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

vs RHP88 PA0.518

vs RHP: shrunk estimate 0.518 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.494 to 0.542, based on 88 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.364 EB/PA. League median vs RHP: 0.433 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs RHP (0.364) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

0.4030.4410.4800.5180.556
← worsebetter →
Above league medianBelow50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a lefty bat (median 0.078). He is above the league median against both hands, so even his weaker side is a strength.

He sits in the league's middle half vs lefties and the league's top quarter vs righties.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that hand, with its 50% probable range as the bar. Higher is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of hitters with 50 or more plate appearances.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHP and RHP are left- and right-handed pitchers. More on the About page

How he hits

See what his contact is worth and what pitchers throw him.

He hits the ball to the pull side most often, but does his most damage to the opposite field.

Best batted balls

Every ball Matt Wallner put in play this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Nick MartinezHome run
110 mph · 36° · worth 3.8 bases
04/05 vs Rays
vs Kris BubicHome run
109 mph · 23° · worth 3.5 bases
03/30 vs Royals
vs Miles MikolasHome run
109 mph · 22° · worth 2.8 bases
05/06 vs Nationals
vs Joe MantiplyDouble
109 mph · 21° · worth 2.6 bases
05/03 vs Blue Jays
vs Framber ValdezDouble
105 mph · 17° · worth 2.0 bases
04/08 vs Tigers

Luck check

How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball that got caught. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Performance by pitch type

2026 · 562 pitches

Each row shows the bases he adds per 100 pitches of one type, against the league.

← below league medianabove league median →
Four-Seam Fastball (191 pitches)
−4.8
Lg median −0.4Lg best +8.7
Sinker (86 pitches)
+3.2
Lg median −1.3Lg best +9.7
Changeup (61 pitches)
−4.2
Lg median −0.5Lg best +16.5
Slider (59 pitches)
−3.9
Lg median −0.5Lg best +12.2
Sweeper (51 pitches)
−1.9
Lg median −0.2Lg best +15.7
Other (114 pitches)

+1.2 bases per 100 · no single-type league comparison

Above league medianBelowMiddle half of the leagueLg medianLg best
How to read this chart
Each row is the bases he adds per 100 pitches of that type, on the same scale as the pitcher pages’ “saved/cost per 100” but from the hitter’s side. Every pitch counts. Taking a ball adds value, whiffing loses it, and the pitch that ends the plate appearance scores its outcome against what that count usually produces. A value of +3.5 means his results against that pitch have been worth about 3.5 extra bases per 100 seen. Higher is better. Types with fewer than 50 pitches seen pool into “Other”.

Deserved vs. actual

Matt Wallner has been credited with about the bases his contact earned so far.

Deserved by his own contact35
Actually credited to him35

Both bars count only his 67 balls in play, so walks and strikeouts are left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball he puts in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually earn. If the second bar is longer than the first, his results have run ahead of his contact and he has been lucky. If it is shorter, he has been unlucky.

Swing

See how fast he swings and what he changes with two strikes. League tracking starts in 2024.

Swing at a glance

2026 · data through 2026-09-27
Bat speed · 278 swings
74.4 mph
Lg median 71.1 mph
Slowest: S. Kwan (61.8 mph)Fastest: J. Caminero (78.4 mph)
Lg median

He swings faster than most hitters. His swing length and attack angle both sit in the league's middle range. With two strikes, he changes his bat speed less than most hitters. His bat travels on a flatter path than most.

Attack angle
10.4°
Lg median 9.6°
Swing length
7.4 ft
Lg median 7.3 ft
Swing path tilt
27.9°
Lg median 32.4°
Middle half of the league
How to read this chart
  • Bat speed counts competitive swings only, so bunts and check swings under 50 mph are left out.
  • Swing length is how far the sweet spot of the bat travels during the swing. Attack angle is the bat’s upward or downward tilt through the zone.
  • Swing path tilt is how steep the bat’s path is.
  • None of these is better or worse on its own. Swing style trades power against contact, and the fastest and slowest swings in the league both belong to stars. More on the About page

How he sets up

See where he stands in the box and how his feet are set, next to the league-average setup.

How he sets up

He stands 32″ off the plate, farther away than 99% of hitters (league average 27″).

Top-down batting stance vs league averagePitcher ↑

Each point is his average setup for one month this season, about a second before each pitch.

Middle half of the leagueLg median
His feetLg avg
How to read this chart
  • This is an overhead view of the batter’s box. The dots are his feet about one second before the pitch, and the rings are the league-average setup.
  • Open means his front foot is pulled off the line to the plate, and closed means it steps toward it. Neither is better or worse.
  • The chart is his monthly average this season. The band and dashed line are the middle half and the median of hitters over the whole season.
  • On the angle chart, below zero is open and above zero is closed.
  • Data through 2026-09-27. More on the About page

Best games

These are his biggest games this season.

Best games

These are his best games this season, ranked by bases above replacement.

Multi-season trends · Matt Wallner

Compared with last season, his HR% is down, his BB% is down, his K% is up, his Barrel% is down, his Hard-hit% is down, his GB% is up and his FB% is down.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.