MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Rays @ Twins, 04/05/2026 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Apr 5, 2026
Rays
4
Final
Game 823729
Twins
1
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Rays
90%
· tied 7%
·
Twins
4%
Rays earned it
Rays deserved to win and did, beating Twins 4–1.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.