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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Red Sox at Athletics · Jul 30, 2026

Red Sox
5
Final
Athletics
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Red Sox 31% · tied 17% · Athletics 52%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
5
4
Est. bases
11.3
14.2
Total bases
15
14
Home runs
2
0
Barrels
2
1
Walks/HBP
3
2
Strikeouts
9
8
GIDP
1
2
Stolen bases
1
0
Left on base
5
6
Errors
2
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Athletics lead on deserved runs by 0.7.

Athletics deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+0.7-1
Red Sox deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Athletics +0.4 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Athletics +0.4 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Athletics +1.0 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.6 deserved runs · actual Athletics +1Through inning 4: deserved Athletics +2.2 (80% band 0.0 to +4.0) · this inning +1.2 deserved runs · actual Athletics +3Through inning 5: deserved Athletics +2.1 (80% band 0.0 to +5.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 6: deserved Athletics +2.0 (80% band 0.0 to +5.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Athletics +1Through inning 7: deserved Athletics +1.7 (80% band 0.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Athletics +1Through inning 8: deserved Red Sox +0.3 (80% band -3.0 to +3.0) · this inning -2.0 deserved runs · actual Red Sox +1Through inning 9: deserved Athletics +0.7 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.9 deserved runs · actual Red Sox +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualAthletics sideRed Sox side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Red Sox
Athletics
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Red Sox
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Athletics
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Red Sox
Athletics
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Red Soxpitching
Sonny Gray7.0 IP · 30 BF · 5 K · 2 BB
1.5 bases saved

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 2.3 bases better than average on 27 pitches. The Sinker got hit — 6 balls in play worth 3.2 expected bases.

Changeup5 thrown (5% tonight, season 6%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Greg Weissert1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Changeup3 thrown (30% tonight, season 13%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Four-Seamer3 thrown (30% tonight, season 29%) · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Aroldis Chapman1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.5 bases cost

Overall 1.5 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sinker5 thrown (45% tonight, season 33%) · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Splitter2 thrown (18% tonight, season 12%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Athleticspitching
Mason Barnett5.0 IP · 21 BF · 6 K · 1 BB
4.5 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 2.9 bases better than average on 38 pitches. 6 of his 11 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Scott Blewett2.0 IP · 8 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 9 pitches. 3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Cutter.

Four-Seamer2 thrown (9% tonight, season 24%)
0.0 bases
Luis Medina1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
3.8 bases cost

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 9 pitches. Overall 3.8 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Slider1 thrown (6% tonight, season 17%)
+0.1 bases cost
Elvis Alvarado1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Four-Seamer8 thrown (73% tonight, season 59%) · 1 whiff
+0.2 bases cost
Slider2 thrown (18% tonight, season 21%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Red Sox
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Athletics
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Willson Contreras hit it

Every ball Willson Contreras hit this game, where it landed.

330'406'325'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.4 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP0 K104.8 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 5.6
PA 1 vs Mason Barnett: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 2 vs Mason Barnett: walkPA 3 vs Scott Blewett: single — 0.8 deserved basesPA 4 vs Luis Medina: home run — 3.8 deserved bases
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking55%

4.6 deserved bases on contact

Fastball27%
Offspeed18%

0.1 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Luis Medina
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.8
Mason Barnett
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.1
Scott Blewett
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.8
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Sutter Health Park.

Red Sox25 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
330'406'325'
Athletics27 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
330'406'325'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Sutter Health Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information