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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Blue Jays at Red Sox · Jul 26, 2026

Blue Jays
1
Final
Red Sox
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Blue Jays 19% · tied 16% · Red Sox 64%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
1
6
Est. bases
9.1
11.5
Total bases
11
12
Home runs
0
0
Barrels
0
1
Walks/HBP
1
2
Strikeouts
9
7
GIDP
1
1
Stolen bases
1
2
Left on base
8
5
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Red Sox lead on deserved runs by 1.4.

Red Sox deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+6+1.4+5
Blue Jays deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved even (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Blue Jays +0.0 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Red Sox +0.2 (80% band -1.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Red Sox +1Through inning 4: deserved Red Sox +0.6 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual Red Sox +3Through inning 5: deserved Red Sox +0.4 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Red Sox +3Through inning 6: deserved Blue Jays +0.0 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.4 deserved runs · actual Red Sox +3Through inning 7: deserved Red Sox +1.7 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +1.7 deserved runs · actual Red Sox +6Through inning 8: deserved Red Sox +1.7 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual Red Sox +6Through inning 9: deserved Red Sox +1.4 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Red Sox +5123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualRed Sox sideBlue Jays side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Blue Jays
Red Sox
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Blue Jays
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Red Sox
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Blue Jays
Red Sox
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Blue Jayspitching
Kevin Gausman6.0 IP · 24 BF · 6 K · 1 BB
3.1 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 2.4 bases better than average on 55 pitches. 6 of his 14 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Changeup1 thrown
−0.1 bases saved
Braydon Fisher0.3 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.3 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Curveball3 thrown (25% tonight, season 29%)
+0.4 bases cost
Brendon Little0.7 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.5 bases cost

Overall 1.5 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Slider2 thrown (17% tonight, season 29%)
−0.1 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown (8% tonight, season 26%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Adam Macko1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.0 bases saved

About an average night — −1.0 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Changeup4 thrown (31% tonight, season 15%)
+0.1 bases cost
Red Soxpitching
Ranger Suarez4.0 IP · 15 BF · 6 K · 0 BB
2.1 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 16 pitches. The Sinker got hit — 5 balls in play worth 3.3 expected bases.

Four-Seamer13 thrown (20% tonight, season 23%)
−0.4 bases saved
Slider8 thrown (13% tonight, season 5%) · 5 whiffs
−0.9 bases saved
Curveball6 thrown (9% tonight, season 17%)
−0.9 bases saved
Greg Weissert1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases saved

About an average night — −0.3 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Slider2 thrown (17% tonight, season 9%)
0.0 bases
Changeup1 thrown (8% tonight, season 13%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Sweeper1 thrown (8% tonight, season 13%)
0.0 bases
Tyron Guerrero1.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases saved

About an average night — −0.5 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Justin Slaten1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Curveball2 thrown (17% tonight, season 3%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Four-Seamer2 thrown (17% tonight, season 25%)
−0.2 bases saved
Sweeper2 thrown (17% tonight, season 17%)
0.0 bases
Ryan Watson2.0 IP · 9 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
2.1 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 11 pitches. Overall 2.1 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Cutter5 thrown (17% tonight, season 25%)
−0.3 bases saved
Four-Seamer1 thrown (3% tonight, season 19%)
0.0 bases
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Blue Jays
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Red Sox
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Andrés Giménez hit it

Every ball Andrés Giménez hit this game, where it landed.

310'396'302'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +1.2 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA3 H0 BB0 HBP0 K100.3 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 4Deserved: 2.8
PA 1 vs Ranger Suarez: double — 1.2 deserved basesPA 2 vs Greg Weissert: single — 1.0 deserved basesPA 3 vs Justin Slaten: out — 0.2 deserved basesPA 4 vs Ryan Watson: single — 0.5 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball67%

2.4 deserved bases on contact

Breaking33%

0.5 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Ranger Suarez
Actual
2.0
Deserved
1.2
Greg Weissert
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Ryan Watson
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.5
Justin Slaten
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.2
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Fenway Park.

Blue Jays26 BIP · 1 BB/HBP
310'396'302'
Red Sox26 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
310'396'302'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Fenway Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information